Oscar experts clash over best pix predix: ‘Social Network’ vs. ‘King’s Speech’

“The King’s Speech” receives the most votes from two groups of Oscar pundits predicting the winner of the Oscar for best picture: 1.) experts from various media polled by Gold Derby and 2.) the editors of GoldDerby.com.

However, “The Social Network” actually reaps a higher overall score in the experts’ poll when measuring support via a point system. By contrast, “The King’s Speech” continues to reign with Gold Derby’s editors employing that scoring method.

Out of the 11 experts offering their predix to Gold Derby, four picked “The King’s Speech” to win: Lane Brown (Vulture), Pete Hammond (Deadline), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly) and Steve Pond (The Odds, The Wrap). Three forecasted “The Social Network”: Scott Feinberg (ScottFeinberg), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere). Two believe “Black Swan” will fly: Thelma Adams (Us Weekly, Thelmadams.com) and Bob Tourtellotte (Reuters). One pundit choose “The Way Back”: Guy Lodge (In Contention). Another “Toy Story 3”: Erik Davis (Cinematical).

All of them ranked their predix for 10 nominees in the category. When 10 points were assigned to their No. 1-ranked choice, 9 points to their No. 2, etc., “The Social Network” actually scored highest among those Oscarologists, prevailing over “The King’s Speech” by a score of 98 to 84. Therefore, we translated the experts’ racetrack odds into 9 to 5 for “The Social Network” and 9 to 4 for “The King’s Speech.” See their odds for other top races here.

By contrast, six of Gold Derby’s 11 editors ranked “The King’s Speech” highest: Chris Beachum, Darrin Dortch, Rob Licuria, Andrew Pickett, Benjamin Scuglia and Paul Sheehan. I am one of four Derbyites backing “The Social Network” along with Chris Hine, Matt Noble and David Schnelwar. Cassandra Belek is betting on “127 Hours.” When applying point scores to the Derbyite rankings, “The King’s Speech” rules with 104 compared to 99 for “The Social Network. We translate that to 2 to 1 odds for “King’s Speech” and 7 to 3 odds for “Social Network.” See more odds here.

Keep checking Gold Derby over the next few days while we unveil more experts’ and editors’ predix in other top Oscar categories: Best Actor and Actress plus Best Supporting Actor and Actress.

Click the “Keep Reading” link under the box below to see more Oscar rankings from the experts.

BEST PICTURE
Thelma Adams,
Lane
Brown
,
Vulture
Erik
Davis
,
Cinematical
Scott
Feinberg
,
ScottFeinberg
Pete
Hammond
,
Deadline
Dave
Karger
,
EW
1.

‘Black Swan’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘The Social Network’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The King’s Speech’

2.

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The Social Network’

‘127 Hours’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The Social Network’

‘The Social Network’

3.

‘The Social Network’

‘True Grit’

‘True Grit’

‘Inception’

‘Inception’

‘True Grit’

4.

‘Inception’

‘127 Hours’

‘The Social Network’

‘127 Hours’

‘Black Swan’

‘Inception’

5

‘Made in Dagenham’

‘Inception’

‘Waiting for Superman’

‘True Grit’

‘The Way Back’

‘The Kids Are All Right’ 

6.

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Black Swan’

‘Black Swan’

‘Rabbit Hole’

‘Toy Story 3’

7.

‘127 Hours’

”Toy Story 3′

‘Inception’

‘Another Year’

‘127 Hours’

‘How Do You Know’

8.  ‘Toy Story 3’ ‘Black Swan’  ‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘127 Hours’
9.

‘True Grit’

‘Another Year’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The Fighter’

‘The Fighter’

‘Black Swan’

10.

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Hereafter’

‘Hereafter’



 

BEST PICTURE Guy
Lodge,

InContention
Steve
Pond
,
The Wrap
Sasha
Stone
,
Awards Daily
Bob
Tourtellotte
, Reuters
Jeff
Wells
,
Hollywood
Elsewhere
Overall Ranking 
1.

‘The Way Back’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The Social Network’

‘Black Swan’

‘The Social Network’   

‘The Social Network’

2. ‘The Social Network’ ‘The Social Network’  ‘The King’s Speech’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The King’s Speech’ 

‘The King’s Speech’  

3.

‘Toy Story 3’

‘Black Swan’

‘127 Hours’

‘The Social Network’

‘127 Hours’ 

‘127 Hours’ 

4.

‘The King’s Speech’

‘127 Hours’

‘True Grit’

‘Inception’

‘Black Swan’

‘Inception’

5

‘Another Year’

‘True Grit’ 

‘Inception’

‘127 Hours’

‘Inception’

‘Black Swan’

6.

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘True Grit’ 

7. ‘True Grit’   ‘The Fighter’

 ‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘True Grit’  ‘Morning Glory’ 

‘Toy Story 3’

8. ‘Winter’s Bone’ ‘The Kids Are All Right’  ‘Another Year’

 ‘The Kids Are All Right’ 

‘The Way Back’

 ‘The Kids Are All Right’
9.

‘Rabbit Hole’

‘Inception’

‘The Fighter’

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘Another Year’ 

‘The Fighter’

10.

‘Inside Job’

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘The Fighter’

‘Blue Valentine’

‘Winter’s Bone’

 

BEST PICTURE Chris
Beachum
Cassandra
Belek
Darrin
Dortch
Chris
Hine
Rob
Licuria
Matt
Noble
1.

‘The King’s Speech’

‘127 Hours’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The Social Network’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The Social Network’

2.

‘The Social Network’

‘The King’s Speech’

”The Social Network’

‘127 Hours’

‘The Social Network’

‘The King’s Speech’

3.

‘127 Hours’

‘The Social Network’

‘Inception’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘127 Hours’

‘127 Hours’

4.

‘Inception’

‘True Grit’

‘The Fighter’

‘Inception’

‘Inception’

‘Toy Story 3’

5

‘The Fighter’

‘ ‘Black Swan’

‘127 Hours’

‘The Town’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘True Grit’

6.

‘True Grit’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘Black Swan’

‘Rabbit Hole’

‘Black Swan’

7.

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Inception’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘The Way Back’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

8.  ‘Black Swan’ ‘The Fighter’ ‘Winter’s Bone’

‘True Grit’

‘True Grit’

‘Inception’
9.

‘Waiting for Superman’

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘True Grit’

‘The Fighter’

‘Made in Dagenham’

‘The Town’

10.

‘Another Year’

‘Blue Valentine’

‘Shutter Island’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘The Ghost Writer

 

BEST PICTURE Tom
O’Neil
Andrew
Pickett
David
Schnelwar
Benjamin
Scuglia
Paul
Sheehan
Overall Ranking
1.

‘The Social Network’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The Social Network’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The King’s Speech’

‘The King’s Speech’

2.
 ‘The King’s Speech’
 ‘127 Hours’ ‘The King’s Speech’

 ‘Inception’

‘The Social Network’  

‘The Social Network’  

3.

‘127 Hours’

‘The Social Network’

‘Inception’

‘127 Hours’

‘127 Hours’ 

‘127 Hours’

4.

‘True Grit’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Toy Story 3’

The Social Network’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘Inception’

5

‘Toy Story 3’

‘True Grit’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Toy Story 3’

‘Inception’

‘Toy Story 3’ 

6.

‘Black Swan’

‘Inception’

‘127 Hours’

‘Black Swan’

‘Black Swan’

‘True Grit’

7.  ‘Inception’ ‘Toy Story 3’

‘Black Swan’

‘Made in Dagenham’   ‘The Fighter’

‘Black Swan’

8.

 ‘The Fighter’

‘Black Swan’  ‘The Fighter’

‘True Grit’

‘True Grit’

‘The Kids Are All Right’  
9.

‘How Do You Know’

‘Made in Dagenham’

“The Way Back’

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘The Kids Are All Right’ 

‘The Fighter’

10.

‘The Kids Are All Right’

‘Winter’s Bone’

‘True Grit’

‘Alice in Wonderland’

‘How Do You Know’

‘Winter’s Bone’

 

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