Sorry Justin Bieber fans: Your 'Baby' is doomed in one top Grammy race

Let’s not beat around the bush; Justin Bieber doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning Best New Artist at the Grammys this February.

Sure, many teen pop stars have been nominated for this top Grammy honor in the past: Musical Youth (1983); Hanson (1997); Backstreet Boys (1998); Britney Spears (1999); Christina Aguilera (1999) and the Jonas Brothers (2008). Only Aguilera managed to prevail. She has that powerful, old school voice that voters just couldn’t deny.

Bieber will surely get the nomination; he has been the biggest breakout star of the Grammy eligibility period. However, several factors will prevent him from winning.

Bieber, much like the Jonas Brothers, probably won’t get any other Grammy nominations beyond the Best New Artist category. The Grammy winners for Best New Artist almost always have contend in the General Field or genre categories. In the past two decades, Shelby Lynne (2000) was the only Best New Artist winner without any other Grammy nominations. So Bieber will be an also-ran if he doesn’t score nominations in the General Field or pop field.

The recording industry does not take Bieber’s music seriously. Besides “Baby,” a ubiquitous collaboration with rapper Ludacris, he hasn’t scored any other hits this Grammy eligibility period. Sure, Bieber’s tween fans buy his singles on iTunes the week they are released, but Bieber’s singles have had little longevity on the chart. And he isn’t regarded as a great singer, songwriter or musician like most Best New Artist winners. While Grammy voters will reward him with a nomination for selling records this year, NARAS doesn’t like crowning fluffy, teen pop stars as Best New Artist winners.

Photo: Justin Bieber (Island Records)

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