Oscar experts dish Best Pic bid for ‘Bridesmaids’

If there will be 10 Oscar nominations for Best Picture, “Bridesmaids” will make the list, according to the experts polled by Gold Derby. But is it crazy to think it can really get nominated? Currently, 10 of 29 experts polled by Gold Derby have “Bridesmaids” in their Top 10 lists. (See the full list here.) That places it in the 10th spot in the experts’ overall ranking.

“It’s not crazy at all,” insists Michael Musto (Village Voice). “It’s the funniest movie of the year. It’s up for SAG Awards and Golden Globes. And though it features some scatological humor, the very same bodily function is a plot device in ‘The Help’!”


Others disagree. When we asked our pundits for a quote, S.T. Van Airsdale (Movieline) replied, “Yeah, I got a quote: Put down the f**king egg nog.”

Others vacillate a bit. “Yes, if there were 10, I think it would have a shot,” says Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly). “But I think there will be more like 7 or 8, so I doubt it will actually be a nominee.”

Below are comments from many of the Oscarologists:

CHRIS ROSEN (MOVIEFONE): “If there were 10 nominees it would definitely get nominated. I still think it has an outside shot, assuming there are like 7 nominees, since it feels like the movie of the moment. There is obviously great support from SAG too, which will help. It’s a weak year, so why not?”

STEVE POND (THE WRAP): “Damn right, it’s crazy to think it’ll be nominated. It’ll take about 60 first-place votes (actually, closer to 50) to get through the first round. Even if it does that, it’ll need about 250 votes to get a nomination — and with a new system that severely limits the opportunities to move up if you don’t have the votes right away, those 250 votes are going to have to come from the #1 and occasionally #2 spots on the ballot. Even the people who like it don’t like it that much, it’s not gonna happen. “

SASHA STONE (AWARDS DAILY): “The first thing is that there probably will not be 10 nominees. Between 5 and 9 is likely. I’m thinking it will be less …7 or 8 tops. Who is going to put ‘Bridesmaids’ at number one? You have to have at least 60 number-one votes to get to the second round. Gonna bet ‘Harry Potter’ has a better chance at doing that than ‘Bridesmaids.’ Sure, the actors went for it for ensemble but that doesn’t mean it has the gravitas to make it into the Top 10. So my thinking is that, no, it won’t. Can’t see how in a million years ‘Bridesmaids’ could squeeze in.  The main reason is that it’s an ‘SNL’ comedy. When was the last time a movie like that got nominated, even with ten best pics? It never happens.”

MARK HARRIS (GRANTLAND): “I think that, if there were still 10 guaranteed Best Picture slots, it might stand a chance. And it would certainly be on my ballot if I had one. But as it stands, I don’t see ‘Bridesmaids’ getting enough #1 and #2 votes to be nominated–especially if we end up with only 5 or 6 or 7 nominees. I’d love to be wrong. And I do think it’s a real contender for Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress nominations.”

ANNE THOMPSON (THOMPSON ON HOLLYWOOD, INDIEWIRE): “No ‘Bridesmaids.’ No way, or ‘Extremely Loud,’ ‘Tinker,’ ‘Ides of March,’ or ‘J. Edgar.’ The one that has a remote chance with Xmas reviews and box office, is ‘Dragon Tattoo.'”

ELENA HOWE (L.A. TIMES): “I agree that ‘Bridesmaids’ won’t make the cut. I think we’re looking at 7 or 8 nominees and I’m going to go out on a limb and say that ‘Extremely Loud’ makes a late rally and joins the race.”

GUY LODGE (IN CONTENTION, HITFIX): “I can see why, in theory, one might think it’ll be nominated — but in practice, that’d require at least one in 20 Academy members to list it as their absolute favorite film of the year, and I don’t see that happening. Even in the two years that we had 10 nominees, no broad comedy made it in (despite some pundits predicting a nomination for ‘The Hangover’). Similarly, people routinely expect comedies like ‘The 40 Year-Old Virgin’ and ‘Knocked Up’ to get screenplay nominations, and …  nothing. A screenplay nod for Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, plus a possible acting nod for Melissa McCarthy, would be the hugest reward for the film — it won’t go further than that, though it’d certainly be a worthier nominee than boilerplate Oscar fare like’ War Horse.’ Oh, and there won’t be 10 nominees — I feel weirdly certain of that.”

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