The Gold Derby Oscarologists have Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady“) out far out in front in the Best Actress race. Streep is given 5-to-6 racetrack odds while Viola Davis (“The Help“), who has 4-to-1 odds, is in second place.
Twelve of Gold Derby’s Experts expect Streep to finally win her third Oscar, including Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Lewin (WENN), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), S.T. VanAirsdale (Movieline), Chuck Walton (Fandango), Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Susan Wloszcyna (USA Today), and Gold Derby editor Paul Sheehan. Their full Best Actress predictions can be viewed here.
However, in both 2008 and 2009, Streep was an early frontrunner for her roles in “Doubt” and “Julie & Julia.” She ended up losing to Kate Winslet (“The Reader”) and Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”). While she has amassed more nominations than any actor in Oscar history — a staggering sixteen — she has also lost a record number of times (14). She has not win since 1982 when she claimed the Best Actress award for “Sophie’s Choice.” Three years earlier, she had won Best Supporting Actress for “Kramer vs. Kramer.”
Streep’s losing streak spans twelve losses from her 1983 bid for “Silkwood” to that 2009 nod for “Julie & Julia.” That far surpasses runner-up Katharine Hepburn‘s eight consecutive losses that started with “Alice Adams” (1935) and ended with “Long Day’s Journey into Night” (1962). Hepburn went on to prevail with her 10th (“Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner,” 1967), 11th (“The Lion in Winter, 1968) and 12th (“On Golden Pond,” 1981) Best Actress bids, bringing her total haul to four (she won with her first nomination in 1933 for “Morning Glory”).
Gold Derby Editors Chris Beachum, Andrew Pickett, and Adam Waldowski think this is Streep’s year at long last. And she has overwhelming support from our users with 49% placing her in the lead. The editors’ full predictions can be reviewed here.
Streep faces formidable competition from Davis, her “Doubt” co-star. Her eight proponents among Gold Derby Experts include Thelma Adams (Thelmadams.com), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Guy Lodge (In Contention), Matt McDaniel (Yahoo Movies), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), and Gold Derby editor Tom O’Neil. However, only 12% of Gold Derby users think she can go the distance.
Both the 62-year-old Streep and 46-year-old Davis stray from the norm of recent Best Actress winners. Natalie Portman (“Black Swan,” 2010), Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line,” 2005), and Charlize Theron (“Monster,” 2003) were all in their twenties when they became champs. Kate Winslet (“The Reader,” 2008) and Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose,” 2007) were in their thirties. Only 45-year-old Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side,” 2009) and 61-year-old Helen Mirren (“The Queen,” 2006) broke with tradition in the last decade.
The 31-year-old Michelle Williams, portraying sexpot Marilyn Monroe in “My Week with Marilyn,” is more in line with the young, attractive ladies who have won Best Actress in recent years. Edward Douglas (Coming Soon) and Pete Hammond (Deadline) are experts who think she will take the prize along with Gold Derby editor Daniel Montgomery. Williams’ odds are currently 15-to-2.
The full chart breakdown of Experts, Editors, and Users predictions can be found here.
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