Is Best Picture one of these ACE Eddie nominees?

Friday’s American Cinema Editors nominations for Drama mirror those films chosen by the Directors Guild of America — “Black Swan, ” “The Fighter,” Inception,” “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network.” All five of these are among the 10 in in the running with the Producers Guild of America.

The winner of the Golden Eddie has proven to be one of the best indicators of which film takes home the Best Picture Oscar. Last year, the eventual Academy Awards champ “The Hurt Locker” edged out “Avatar” as well as “District 9,” “Star Trek” and “Up in the Air” for the Drama prize at the Eddies.

This year’s ACE nominees for Comedy or Musical are: “Alice in Wonderland,” “Easy A,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “Made in Dagenham” and “Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World.”

And the ACE nominees for Animated Feature are: “Despicable Me,” “How to Train Your Dragon” and “Toy Story 3.”

The PGA nominees that failed to make the cut with the editors are “127 Hours,” “The Town” and “True Grit.” That last film was edited by writer/directors Ethan and Joel Coen under the pseudonym Roderick Jaynes. They have four ACE nominations as well as two Oscar bids for their editing efforts.

Since 1990, the film that came up with the ACE went on to win Best Picture 14 times. In three of the five years when the ACE barometer was wrong, the editing winner was at least a contender for Best Picture. The exceptions — in 2007 when neither “The Bourne Ultimatum” nor “Sweeney Todd” made the final five at the Oscars and 1999 when the same fate befell “The Matrix” and “Being John Malkovich.”

Though ACE has a good track record as a Best Picture predictor and a great one for forecasting who will win the Editing Oscar (17 out of 19 years), it is surprising that it is not all knowing when it comes to the Editing Oscar nominations. Since 1992, when the Eddies went to five nominees from three, 78 of the 95 Oscar nominees for Editing had first gotten a Golden Eddie nod. Last year,only three of five ACE drama nominees competed at the Oscars — “Avatar,” “District 9” and “The Hurt Locker” with “Inglorious Basterds” and “Precious” added to the mix.

Although this track record appears impressive enough, ACE doubled its chances of getting it right when it split Dramas and Comedy/Musicals into separate kudos in 1999. Two years ago, the Comedy/Musical Eddie went to Stephen Schaffer for “Wall-E.” Schaffer — a 2004 nominee for “The Incredibles” — made history with this win as it was the first time an animated film had taken one of these kudos since they were first handed out 61 years ago.

The Eddie Awards take place on Feb. 19 at the Beverly Hilton. For the full list of nominees visit the ACE website.

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