Best performance predicting Emmys: Ken Tucker (EW) and three pundits

Our dozen Emmy experts predicted the nominees for drama and comedy series, the four regular acting races in each of these genres as well as the best TV movie/miniseries and variety series. These 12 categories had 72 nominees in all. The best among us was Ken Tucker (EW) (photo, right) who correctly predicted 58 of the nominees, including the full slate of drama and comedy series contenders.

Daniel Manu (TelevisionWithoutPity) was second with 56, followed by both Gold Derby founder Tom O’Neil and RIck Porter (Zap2It) with 55. Three of our pundits — Tim Appelo (THR), Michael Ausiello (TV Line) and Gold Derby exec editor Paul Sheehan — all scored 54.

Jill Serjeant (Reuters) came in at 52 while Melanie McFarland (IMDB) scored 50. Rounding out the roster were Chrissy Le Nguyen (Yahoo! TV) with 42, Frazier Moore (AP) at 41 and Matt Mitovich (TV Line) with 40.

Many of our experts also predicted the nominees in other categories, including those for movie/mini acting and the reality races. As a percentage of possible nominees, four pundits tied for first place: Ken Tucker (EW), Rick Porter (Zap2It), Daniel Manu (Television Without Pity) and Jill Serjeant (Reuters) all scored 77%.

Below are their overall success rates:

77% — Rick Porter, Zap2It (60 out of 78)
77% — Daniel Manu, TVWP (60 out of 78)
77% — Jill Serjeant, Reuters (59 out of 77)
77% — Ken Tucker, EW (75 out of 97)
76% — Tim Appelo, Hollywood Reporter (61 out of 80)
76% — Mike Ausiello, TVLine (59 out of 78)
75% — Tom O’Neil, Gold Derby (85 out of 113)
72% — Melanie McFarland, IMDB (54 out of 75)
70% — Paul Sheehen, Gold Derby (77 out of 110)
60% — Chrissy Le Nguyen, Yahoo TV (50 out of 84)
59% — Frazier Moore, AP (49 out of 83)
57% — Matt Mitovich, TVLine (44 out of 78)

The average of all 12 experts was 71% while our nine editors averaged 73%. Leading them with 77% of their predictions correct were Andrew Pickett (who also aced his Oscars predictions) and Rob Licuria, who features in our Emmy slugfests along with Chris Beachum who is in second place with a 75% success rate.


Below are their overall success rates:

77% — Andrew Pickett (88 out of 114)
77% — Rob Licuria (88 out of 114)
75% — Chris Beachum (79 out of 106)
75% — Marcus Dixon (85 out of 114)
75% — Daniel Montgomery (85 out of 114)
71% — Darrin Dortch (78 out of 110)
71% — Matt Noble (79 out of 111)
68% — Matthew Cormier (68 out of 108)
68% — David Schnelwar (73 out of 108)

Our editors are already predicting the winners and in the coming days our experts will weigh in as well. Compete against them by entering your predictions in the top 20 categories here.


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