Historically, the chapter choices indicated on the BAFTA long lists are a good barometer of the eventual nominees. Of the 15 long list mentions for “The King’s Speech,” an even dozen of these rated in the top five for the respective chapters, including three performances (Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helen Bonham Carter) and directing (Tom Hooper). “Black Swan” had 10 of its 15 long list candidates make the top five, including two performers — Barbara Hershey and Natalie Portman — and director Darren Aronofsky.
For “Inception,” eight of its 14 mentions were among the top five including both original screenplay and directing for Christopher Nolan and the lead performance by Leonardo DiCaprio. By comparison, “Made in Dagenham” managed to make the top five with just four of its 14 mentions.
“The Social Network” has six of its 13 mentions among the top five, including directing (David Fincher) and both lead (Jesse Eisenberg) and supporting (Andrew Garfield) actors. While “True Grit” batted .500 with half of its dozen mentions in the top five including lead Jeff Bridges, directors Joel and Ethan Coen made the cut only for adapted screenplay. Rather, the directors branch went with Danny Boyle as a top pick with his film “127 Hours” having 5 of its 11 mentions earning that coveted asterisk including leading man James Franco.
“Alice in Wonderland” numbers five of its 12 long list mentions among the top tier — costumes, hair and makeup, production design, score and visual effects. While the film failed to make the best picture long list, director Tim Burton did merit a mention. He is the lone exception among the long-listed directors, with the rest all helming best picture contenders; he bumped Debra Granik (“Winter’s Bone”).
Just three of the dozen bids by “The Fighter” are in the top five: supporting performers Amy Adams and Christian Bale as well as the original screenplay. The 12 mentions for “Shutter Island” were shut out of the top five but for cinematography and production design. And both “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” and “The Town” were blanked in the top five despite 11 long list mentions each.