Experts predict Tony Award winners

Five top Tony Award pundits agree on what will win the following categories on June 12: Best Musical (“The Book of Mormon”), Best Play Revival (“The Normal Heart”) and Best Musical Revival (“Anything Goes”). However, they split over most other top contests.

David Sheward (Back Stage), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Harry Haun (Playbill) and Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby, The Envelope/LATimes.com) pick “War Horse” to win Best Play, but Melissa Bernardo (Entertainment Weekly) opts for “Good People.” In the race for Best Actor in a Play, Bernardo, Sheward and Musto believe Mark Rylance (“Jerusalem”) will prevail, but Haun and O’Neil say the champ will be Joe Mantello (“The Normal Heart”). The pundits also disagree over the other leading acting match-ups except one. They concur on who’ll triumph as Best Actress in a Musical: Sutton Foster (“Anything Goes”).

Below, their preliminary rankings in most categories. The pundits will update their predix closer to Tonys day.

BEST MUSICAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
“The Book of Mormon” 1 1 1 1 1
“Catch Me if You Can” 2 2 4 4 4
“The Scottsboro Boys” 3 3 3 3 2
“Sister Act” 4 4 2 2 3

 

BEST PLAY Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
“Good People” 2 3 3 1 2
“Jerusalem” 4 4 4 2 4
“The Mother… With the Hat” 3 2 2 3 3
“War Horse” 1 1 1 4 1

 

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
“Anything Goes” 1 1 1 1 1
“How to Succeed in Business
without Really Trying
2 2 2 2 2

BEST PLAY REVIVAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
“Arcadia” 4 4 4 4 4
“Importance of Being Earnest” 2 2 3 2 2
“Merchant of Venice” 3 3 2 3 3
“The Normal Heart” 1 1 1 1 1

 

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Brian Bedford, “The Importance of Being Earnest” 5 5 4 5 5
Bobby Cannavale, “The Mother… SWith the Hat” 4 2 5 3 4
Joe Mantello, “The Normal Heart” 2 1 2 2 2
Al Pacino, “The Merchant of Venice” 3 4 3 4 3
Mark Rylance, “Jerusalem” 1 3 1 1 1

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Nina Arianda, “Born Yesterday” 3 2 3 1 2
Frances McDormand, “Good People” 1 1 1 2 1
Lily Rabe, “The Merchant of Venice” 2 3 2 3 3
Vanessa Redgrave, “Driving Miss Daisy” 4 4 4 4 4
Hannah Yelland, “Brief Encounter” 5 5 5 5 5

 

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Norbert Leo Butz, “Catch Me if You Can” 4 3 4 2 4
Josh Gad, “The Book of Mormon” 2 1 3 5 1
Joshua Henry, “The Scottsboro Boys” 5 5 5 3 5
Andrew Rannells, “The Book of Mormon” 3 4 2 4 3
Tony Sheldon, “Priscilla Queen of the Desert” 1 2 1 1 2

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Sutton Foster, “Anything Goes” 1 1 1 1 1
Beth Leavel, “Baby It’s You!” 3 4 4 4 4
Patina Miller, “Sister Act” 2 2 2 2 2
Donna Murphy, “The People in the Picture” 4 3 3 3 3

 

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Mackenzie Crook, “Jerusalem” 4 3 3 4 3
Billy Crudup, “Arcadia” 5 5 4 5 4
John Benjamin Hickey, “The Normal Heart” 1 2 1 1 1
Arian Moayed, “Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo” 3 4 5 3 5
Yul Vázquez, “The Mother… With the Hat” 2 1 2 2 2

 

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Ellen Barkin, “The Normal Heart” 1 2 1 2 1
Edie Falco, “The House of Blue Leaves” 2 4 2 1 2
Judith Light, “Lombardi” 3 3 4 5 3
Joanna Lumley, “La Bête” 5 5 5 5 4 5
Elizabeth Rodriguez, “The Mother… With the Hat” 4 1 3 3 4

 

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN MUSICAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Colman Domingo, “The Scottsboro Boys” 4 4 4 3 4
Adam Godley, “Anything Goes” 2 3 3 2 3
John Larroquette, “How to Succeed
in Business Without Really Trying”
1 1 1 4 1
Forrest McClendon, “The Scottsboro Boys” 5 5 5 5 5
Rory O’Malley, “The Book of Mormon” 3 2 2 1 2

 

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN MUSICAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Laura Benanti, “Women on the Verge
of a Nervous Breakdown”
1 2 3 1 2
Tammy Blanchard, “How to Succeed
in Business Without Really Trying”
4 1 4 3 3
Victoria Clark, “Sister Act” 3 5 2 4 1
Nikki M. James, “The Book of Mormon” 2 3 1 2 4
Patti LuPone, “Women on the Verge
of a Nervous Breakdown”
5 4 5 5 5

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, “War Horse” 1 1 1 1 1
Joel Grey & George C. Wolfe, “The Normal Heart” 2 3 2 2 2
Anna D. Shapiro, “The Mother… With the Hat” 3 2 4 3 4
Daniel Sullivan, “The Merchant of Venice” 4 4 3 4 3

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Rob Ashford, “How to Succeed
in Business Without Really Trying”
4 4 4 4 4
Kathleen Marshall, “Anything Goes” 2 3 2 3 2
Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker,
“The Book of Mormon”
1 1 1 1 1
Susan Stroman, “The Scottsboro Boys” 3 2 3 2 3

 

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Rob Ashford, “How to Succeed
in Business Without Really Trying”
4 4 4 1 1
Kathleen Marshall, “Anything Goes” 1 1 1 2 2
Casey Nicholaw, “The Book of Mormon” 3 3 3 3 4
Susan Stroman, “The Scottsboro Boys” 2 2 2 4 3

 

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL Sheward Haun Musto O’Neil
“Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson” (Alex Timbers) 4 4 4 4
“The Book of Mormon” (Trey Parker,
Robert Lopez and Matt Stone)
1 1 1 1
“The Scottsboro Boys” (David Thompson) 3 2 2 2
“Sister Act”(Cheri Steinkellner,
Bill Steinkellner and Douglas Carter Beane)
2 3 3 3

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
“The Book of Mormon” (music and lyrics:
Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone)
1 2 1 1 1
“The Scottsboro Boys” (music and lyrics:
John Kander and Fred Ebb)
2 1 2 2 2
“Sister Act” (Music: Alan Menken; lyrics: Glenn Slater) 3 3 3 4 3
“Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown”
(music and lyrics: David Yazbek)
4 4 4 3 4

 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Todd Rosenthal, “The Mother… With the Hat” 3 2 3 3 3
Rae Smith, “War Horse” 1 1 1 2 1
Ultz, “Jerusalem” 2 4 4 1 4
Mark Wendland, “The Merchant of Venice” 4 3 2 4 2

 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL Sheward Haun Musto Bernardo O’Neil
Beowulf Boritt, “The Scottsboro Boys” 4 3 2 4 3
Derek McLane, “Anything Goes” 2 1 3 3 2
Scott Pask, “The Book of Mormon” 1 2 1 2 1
Donyale Werle, “Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson” 3 4 4 1 4


Photos: “The Book of Mormon” (Eugene O’Neill Theatre), “War Horse” (Vivian Beaumont Theatre, Lincoln Center)

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