Experts’ latest Oscar predictions for Best Picture

According to the predictions of 26 Oscar experts polled by Gold Derby, three films are out front in the race for Best Picture. Ten Oscarologists choose “The Descendants” as the front-runner to win, seven pick “War Horse” and four back “The Artist.”

There is lesser, but still notable support behind other contenders. Two pundits pick “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and three movies get the backing of one pundit each: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” “J. Edgar” and “Moneyball.”

Here is the breakdown per Oscarlogist. See their rankings of all contenders here.

THE DESCENDANTSThelma Adams (, Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Pete Hammond (Deadline), Bradley Jacobs (Us Weekly), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire), Chuck Walton (Fandango), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

WAR HORSEEdward Douglas (, Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Lewin (WENN), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), S.T. Van Airsdale (Movieline).

THE ARTISTScott Feinberg (The Race, Hollywood Reporter), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Guy Lodge (In Contention), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie).

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSEElena Howe (L.A. Times), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood).

“GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO”Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)

J. EDGARMatt McDaniel (Yahoo Movies)

MONEYBALLJeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)


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  Predicted Winner (Odds) Predicted Nominees (Odds)
1. ‘War Horse’ – 27% (27/10) ‘War Horse’ – 100% (1/100)
2. ‘Descendants’ – 38% (13/8) ‘Descendants’ – 100% (1/100)
3. ‘The Artist’ – 15% (11/2) ‘The Help’ – 96% (1/25)

‘Extremely Loud and Incredibly
Close ‘ – 8% (12/1)

‘The Artist’ – 92% (1/10)
5. ‘J. Edgar’ – 4% (25/1) ‘J. Edgar’ – 81% (2/9)
6. ‘Girl with DragonTattoo’ – 4% (25/1) ‘Midnight in Paris’ – 88% (2/13)
7. ‘Moneyball’ – 4% (25/1) ‘Extremely Loud and Incredibly
Close’ – 88% (2/13)
8.   ‘Moneyball’ – 73% (4/11)
9.   ‘Girl with Dragon Tattoo’ – 62% (8/13)
10.   ‘Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy’ – 54% (5/6)



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