Experts predict ‘Newsies,’ ‘Follies’ to win tuner Tony Awards

Newsies” is the clear frontrunner in the race for Best Musical at the upcoming Tony Awards. All but two of our 12 Experts are predicting it will prevail at the 66th annual edition of these top theater kudos on June 10. Watch the experts discuss the race in this video chat with Gold Derby editor Tom O’Neil.

Newsies” is a stage adaptation of the 1992 Disney film about the delivery boys’ strike against New York City newspapers in 1899. It features music by eight-time Oscar champ and three-time Tony contender Alan Menken and lyrics by Jack Feldman with a book by four-time Tony winner Harvey Fierstein. Menken reaped Tony bids for his scores to “Beauty and the Beast,” “The Little Mermaid” and “Sister Act.”  Fierstein’s won Tonys for writing and starring in “Torch Song Trilogy,” the book of “La Cage aux Folles” and his lead role in “Hairspray.”

Backing this show are Melissa Bernardo (EW), Thom Geier (EW), Andy Humm (Gay USA), Brian Lipton (Theatermania), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), David Sheward (Backstage), Matt Windman (amNY) and Wayman Wong (NY Daily News). 

Martin Denton (NY Theater) and Blake Ross (Playbill) foresee a victor for “Once,” a screen-to-stage version of the 2007 film about an Irish songwriter and his Czech muse. This off-Broadway transfer features tunes by Glen Hansard and Markéta Irglová, who starred in the movie and won the Best Original Song Oscar for “Falling Slowly”.

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In the race for Best Musical Revival, nine of our Experts expect the  second rialto remounting of 1972 Best Musical nominee “Follies” to take this trophy. (The disappointing first revival in 2001 lost this race to “42nd Street.”)

Those predicting it to previal are: Melissa Bernardo (EW), Andy Humm (Gay USA), Brian Lipton (Theatermania), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Blake Ross (Playbill), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), David Sheward (Backstage), Matt Windman (amNY) and Wayman Wong (NY Daily News). 

Two of our Experts — Martin Denton (NY Theater) and Thom Geier (EW) — predict the controversial revision of the 1935 Gershwin opera “Porgy and Bess” to win. A 1977 staging of the full-length work by the Houston Grand Opera won the inaugural Tony in this category. 

See how they rank predictions in each category. See charts detailing their racetrack odds (click “More” within each category box to see extended data). Review contenders here and enter predictions here.

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