Louis CK vs. Larry David vs. Jim Parsons: It’s an Emmy squeaker!

Now that Gold Derby has revealed the episodes submitted by nominees to Emmy judges, there’s been a dramatic switch in our Editors’ predictions for Best Comedy Actor. Recent two-time champ Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory“) has pulled even with Louis C.K.(“Louie”) and Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”).

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All three nominees have three Gold Derby editors predicting that they will win. Backing Parsons are Chris Beachum, Rob Licuria and. Paul Sheehan. Louis CK is pick of Daniel Montgomery, Tom O’Neil and David Schnelwar. Choosing Larry David are Marcus Dixon, Matt Noble and Andrew Pickett. (See full rankings here.)

Previously, back when nominations were announced in late July, Larry David and Louis CK had four editors backing them; Jim Parsons had only one.

Technically, Larry David is out front among the editors with a narrow edge (21/10 odds) over Louis CK (9/4) and Jim Parsons (23/10) due to how all three are ranked by each editor.

Eleven TV journalists polled by Gold Derby have a very different view of this contest. None of our Experts pick Larry David to prevail. Six pick Louis CK: Maggie Furlong (Huffington Post), Elena Howe (L.A. Times), John Kubicek (Buddy TV), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby) and Ken Tucker (Entertainment Weekly). Backing Parsons are Debra Birnhaum (TV Guide), Maria Elena Fernandez (Newsweek/ Daily Beast), Matt Roush (TV Guide), Mo Ryan (Huffington Post TV) and Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby).

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Parsons leads among Gold Derby Users (13/10 odds), followed by Louis CK (23/10), Larry David (11/2), Alec Baldwin (14/1), Jon Cryer (25/1), Don Cheadle (25/1). See our charts comparing all three sets of odds: Users, Experts, Editors.
 

9 thoughts on “Louis CK vs. Larry David vs. Jim Parsons: It’s an Emmy squeaker!

  1. We need not forget about Jon Cryer, whose annual nominations in the supporting field since his win have only been beaten by “Modern Family” cast members. This year, he doesn’t have that to worry about, and could come out the winner in lead.

  2. Being Larry David’s 5th nomination in lead actor, the odds are against him. 70% of winners in this category won either with their 1st or 2nd nomination. Only 3 actors have been able to win their 1st Lead Comedy Actor Emmy after 5 or more nominations

  3. As Chris Beachum pointed out, there have been 13 nominations and 0 wins in the lead comedy actor category for actors playing themselves. I don’t think this track record bodes well for Larry David or Louis CK.

  4. Jon Cryer could possibly pull off an Allison Janney upset. He’s in second place for me because of that incident. Think about it.

  5. Jon Cryer’s tape is amazing, he’s a previous winner, the Emmy voters have shown support for his show and the other tapes aren’t very competitive. I’m not saying he’s going to win, but how is he in most people’s 5th or 6th place?

  6. Love Jim Parsons to tears — TEARS — but I’d be lying if I said I believe that he should win this year. I’ve missed the classic downplayed yet effective Sheldonesque humor (e.g. “I’ve got your kite, I’ve got your kite…”) on S5 and a new, over-the-top

  7. … Sheldon has emerged, especially in that Emmy submission of his with the bongos. It’s as if he’s trying to keep up with Mayim Bialik’s annoying overacting.

  8. … Whether he was directed that way or what not, we miss the old deadpan Sheldon Cooper humor of yore. Jim Parsons still rocks though.

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