Snuggle4 calls the Oscars derby: ‘Les Miserables’ will sweep

“Psst! Tom, it’s over. A monster sweep for ‘Les Miz.’ Mark this date down,” says a private message I just received on Oct. 6 from someone who really knows his Oscars.

It’s our user “Snuggle4” – who won Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions contest last year and came in fourth place predicting the recent Emmys.

Obviously, he’s a Hollywood hotshot because, when I asked him to reveal his true identity to claim a prize after his Oscar achievement, he refused, replying, “Can we just skip the name part and suffice it to say I’m an industry gadfly? … My philosophy on picking winners is easy – don’t listen to bloggers and JUST SEE THE FILMS! Down to the last nominated documentary short. Listen to industry buzz, but pay no mind to film critics or you’ll be ‘Social Networked’ right out of contention.”

When I asked him if he’s seen “Les Miserables,” he replied with this tease, “I can neither confirm nor deny that I’ve seen it. Hope that helps … ;).”

Last year Snuggle4 scored 88% when forecasting the Oscars, which was much higher than the 80% reaped by the three Experts who won our predictions contest: Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily) and Tariq Khan (Fox News). At his Gold Derby account page, Snuggle4 uses the image of the mascot of Snuggle laundry fabric softener.

23 thoughts on “Snuggle4 calls the Oscars derby: ‘Les Miserables’ will sweep

  1. Have to agree about Les Mis. This is my pick. Everything else will fall by the wayside on Christmas day. 27 years in the waiting for it to appear, this movie will be a classic 50 years from now. All other nominees on offer will pale by comparison as interesting, good, exciting, or innovative but not a film for the ages.

  2. The “stars” will align for this one – coming from a great literary classic which continues to fascinate modern readers, based on a musical adaptation that is universally-loved, a very strong cast with acting and singing talent, a director whose best movie will likely be this one, an approach to musicals that is innovative, and a focus and dedication from everyone in the project. LesMis is for the ages!

  3. @Henry. Les Miserables will take this easily, and even if it doesn’t which I doubt, it’s not going to be Lincoln. I believe you really need to see the film to get what I’m talking about, but anyways long story short, I saw it 2 weeks ago, and god is it boring. It just drags on, and not even the Oscar worthy performances of Tommy Lee Jones, and Daniel Day Lewis, the former being slightly better than the latter. (There, I said it, please don’t kill me, lol) Sally Field is quite remarkable as well, but none of that, and not even the fairly good script can save the film. It’s too long, too much of it is indoors, it’s too stuffy, and it’s just boring. I think that it had the potential to be a ridiculously good, American History masterpiece, but it is just boring. And, despite this being right up the Academy’s alley, it’ll get a nomination for BP, and possibly even BD but that I’m doubting. However, it isn’t either engaging enough, or emotional enough to win.

  4. Les Miz?? a little too early to give the prediction to that one..especially where this year is quite the showing of great possibilities. and after Chicago won nearly 10 years ago, the Academy has been shunning the musicals like the plague. if anything, they might to an epic like Lincoln (heaven help us) or (for the 2nd year in a row) give it to a comedy like Silver Linings Playbook. this coming from an Oscar predictor since Rain Man.

  5. Ok, this guy won the derby for predicting the WINNERS having already been nominated. Not making predictions about movies that have not been screened, reviewed and opened, all things that are important during the race.

  6. I do think Les Miz will get a lot of noms, probably more than Lincoln (hurt by two-time Oscar winners for both director & lead actor); I have “Suddenly” second behind “Skyfall” in the Original Song race (first if “Skyfall” is DQ’d for borrowing a handful of notes from the “James Bond Theme”, unlikely but possible). However, there’s too many films NOT yet seen to assume a Les Miz sweep–not to mention repeat director winners are rare, which favors PTA, Affleck, Russell and even Tarantino over Hooper, Spielberg, Lee & Bigelow. (Oscar also likes actors who direct, another plus for Affleck.)

  7. Also, it’s not hitting theaters till Dec. 25, a distinct disadvantage THIS year because the nomination ballots are due Jan. 3, meaning Academy voters who see it in regular release will have only 9 days to vote for it.

  8. how do u knoe snuggle4 is a man?…was the message a voice mail or an email….and what if your contact is just a go between?………

  9. I’ve been predicting “Les Miz” would so exactly this, sweep, since last year when I heard Tom Hooper was directing it and he had the budget(and the talent) to do it right.He could win his second Oscar for this and this could be the biggest Oscar winning of all time!

  10. @R. Brittain It won’t matter what the release date is, screeners, and screenings will happen long before that for members of the guilds, they’ll probably start seeing it mid-late November. Eagerly awaiting getting my hands on the screener.

  11. “A monster sweep” — psshh…he only has it winning 4 Oscars: Major awards for Supp. Actress (Anne Hathaway), Best Director (Tom Hooper) and Best Picture, plus a trophy for Production Design. How is this a “Monster Sweep”?

  12. People are forgetting how good Russell Crowe could be as Javert, the villain, and of course, we haven’t seen Sasha Baron Cohen and Helena Bonham-Carter yet as the Thernadiers!

  13. Its ironic he says “watch all the films, down to the last documentary short” yet seems to be predicting Les Miserables will sweep the Oscars without seeing half the films that could be nominated? i.e.: Lincoln etc

  14. Based on the original material, I would say yes…but stage to screen adaptations tend to be dicey…sometimes what’s excellent on stage is a movie bomb and vice versa…waits to be seen.

  15. I think to say Les Mis will be a great film and do well at the Oscars is pretty obvious. They don’t call it an Oscar Bait movie for nothing.

  16. R. Brittain: If you factor in that the Academy can give PTA and Russell the screenwriting awards, director looks like it’s Affleck’s to lose. The only thing hurting Argo’s chances at Best Picture is that it is likely to be 5 or 6 shy of the total nominations Lincoln or Les Miz gets (even though I think that Les Miz is going to be the film with some major snubs with Hooper, Jackman, Crowe and the screenplay sitting in iffy positions right now).

  17. @Richard Zhang I don’t doubt it, it was only an example. My point is, at this stage of the Oscar race its unlikely that Mr. Snuggles4 will have seen all the contenders, yet he seems to be jumping the gun a bit and calling it for Les Miserables

  18. “Les Miserables” could win Best Picture, but it seems very unlikely that Tom Hooper will be a two-time Academy Award winner for Best Director. I’m not sure he’ll even be nominated.

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