That’s because all 100,000 SAG members have so far received DVD screeners of all of those films. The fact that guild voters got “The Help,” but not “The Iron Lady” or “My Week with Marilyn” will probably give recent Critics’ Choice champ Viola Davis a notable edge in the race for Best Actress over Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams. “The Help” is already ahead to win Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer) and Best Ensemble at SAG, according to the pundits polled by Gold Derby. See Experts’ predix here (click links at top of that page to see more categories), our Editors predix here and charts comparing three sets of SAG predix here.
Historically, films that paid the high price of shipping DVDs to the entire guild membership have done well, generally speaking, with wins. “Crash” (2005) was the first movie to test the expensive strategy (which then cost $250,000 — not the cost is more than $350,000), but it not only paid off with a SAG Award win for Best Ensemble, but “Crash” went on to pull off an upset in the Best Picture race at the Oscars. The fact that guild members received screeners of “Away from Her,” but not “La Vie en Rose” probably helped Julie Christie to beat Marion Cotillard at SAG in 2007. However, Coltillard went on to win the Oscar.
Not all movies shipped to SAG members have done so well, however. The strategy didn’t help “The Dark Knight” (2008) to get nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars and it didn’t pay off in a Best Actor victory for Peter O’Toole (“Venus,” 2006). Two years ago at SAG, Sandra Bullock won best actress even though DVDs of “The Blind Side” were not sent to members who did receive screeners from competitors Meryl Streep (“Julie and Julia”), Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”) and Carey Milligan (“An Education”).
Last year SAG voters received only two DVDs: “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network.” “King’s Speech” won Best Actor (Colin Firth) and Best Ensemble; “Social Network” got skunked.
Click image below to see SAG predix.