Gold Derby users forecast landslide Emmy victory for Claire Danes (‘Homeland’)

Our Users project an easy Emmy victory for Claire Danes, who contends for Drama Actress for the first season of Showtime’s “Homeland.” To date, almost 90% of those predicting (509) expect the Golden Globe winner to repeat at the Emmys, giving her leading odds of 4 to 7.

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Her nearest competitor — last year’s champ Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife“) — only has 22 votes which give her odds of just 15 to 2 to make it back to the podium.

Next in line are Elisabeth Moss (“Mad Men“) with 12 votes and 12 to 1 odds and Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey“) with 16 votes and 14 to 1 odds. (See a full breakdown of the odds, including those of our Experts and Editors, here.)

Kathy Bates (“Harry’s Law“) ranks last according to Users, who give her just 7 votes and longshot odds of 33 to 1. However, some of our forum posters who have seen the six episode submissions insist we not underestimate the Oscar winner (1990 Best Actress, “Misery”), who has been nominated for 11 Emmys without a win.

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Below is just a sampling of their analyses. Join the debate in our message boards here.

Irishmovielover4ever: Danes is my prediction and personal choice because she was outstanding on the show playing a CIA agent who has a secret of having bipolar disease. In her submitted episode she is off her meds and crazy as ever. This is Danes’s best role because not only does she get the baity material which is being bipolar but also she gets to be smart and good at her job.

thesmartone: We all agreed that Kathy Bates really messed up her submission last year. But this year, she knocked it out of the park. The only thing she has going against her is buzz, and that she’s on a cancelled TV show. However, she does get great comedy, drama, she gets to sing, and she gets to cry. I think we all need to watch out for her Emmy night; she might just steal this away from Claire Danes.

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sorcery: Just finished watching Kathy Bates’s submission. I agree … that we need to start taking her more seriously, even though the show has been canceled. I wonder if older Emmy voters will be tickled by the guest appearances of so many [David E.] Kelley alums in the episode.

probably: I still think Danes has this in the bag.  While the “Pilot” would have been a much stronger submission (more range, has a nice arc, less off-putting to non-viewers) “The Vest” is still a very strong performance.  She may be a little bit more vulnerable than she would have been but from the sounds of it nobody submitted an episode so good it could topple her.

gm465271: I’m still not getting the hate for Marguiles submitting “Parenting Made Easy.”  A few weeks ago I suggested that as her obvious Emmy submission.  If people are upset that the “missing daughter” storyline is resolved rather quickly, I think that they are missing the point of the episode … The episode was about her guilt and anxiety as a working mom, and she played it beautifully.

LanceRouch: [Danes] makes more creative and unique choices than the other women here and the relationships between her and the other characters feel incredibly real and layered. Most of her scene work is more difficult than the other actresses and her final scene, when the CIA shows up, is the most difficult of any that these actresses have to pull off and she does an incredible job!

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