Does SAG Ensemble forecast Best Picture at Oscars?

There is good news for “Gravity” even though it lags far behind Oscar rival “12 Years a Slave” for the SAG Ensemble award. Only nine of the 18 films that have taken this top prize have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. 

Because Alfonso Cuaron‘s blockbuster features only two credited actors — Sandra Bullock and George Clooney — it is not a surprise that it has odds of only 33 to 1 to win this race at the actors guild kudofest on Jan. 18. 

12 Years a Slave” leads all contenders with 40% of All Users and 14 of our Top 24 Users predicting it to prevail. It also has the support of four of the first six Experts to log their forecasts for this race as well as one Editor. All of this combines to give it odds of 12 to 5.

In second place with odds of 14 to 5 is the yet-to-screen “American Hustle.” It has the backing of one Expert, four Editors, seven of our Top 24 and 40% of All Users. 

The super-sized cast of “August: Osage County” gets the votes of two Editors, two Top 24 Users and 10% of All Users. That is good enough for odds of 5 to 1. 

And the similarly star-studded players in “The Butler” garnered the support of one Expert, one Top 24 User and 5% of All Users. That translates into odds of 11 to 2. 

Below, a list of all the winners of the SAG Ensemble award with those films that also won Best Picture at the Oscars in gold

2012 – “Argo
2011 – “The Help”
2010 – “The King’s Speech
2009 – “Inglorious Basterds”
2008 – “Slumdog Millionaire
2007 – “No Country for Old Men
2006 – “Little Miss Sunshine”
2005 – “Crash
2004 – “Sideways”
2003 – “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
2002 – “Chicago
2001 – “Gosford Park”
2000 – “Traffic”
1999 – “American Beauty
1998 – “Shakespeare in Love
1997 – “The Full Monty”
1996 – “The Birdcage”
1995 – “Apollo 13”

What do you think is going to win Best Ensemble this year? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

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