Updated Oscar predictions from 22 Experts: ’12 Years a Slave’ down, ‘Gravity’ up

While “12 Years a Slave” continues to lead the Best Picture race at the Oscars — as it has since mid September — “Gravity” is closing the gap.

Fourteen pundits are picking “12 Years” to prevail; that is down one from last week. That reduced support gives it odds of 4 to 1 (down from 7 to 2 last week). “Gravity” picked up the vote of one Expert and with a half dozen now backing its bid, the blockbuster has odds of 5 to 1 (up from 11 to 2 last week). The still-unseen “American Hustle.” dropped by one and with just two remaining votes its odds widen to 8 to 1 from 15 to 2. 

“12 Years” helmer Steve McQueen maintains his lead for Best Director  ahead of “Gravity” writer/director Alfonso Cuaron by a score of 12 Experts (and odds of 21 to 10) to seven (and odds of 13 to 5) with “Hustle” writer/director David O. Russell in third with three votes and odds of 11 to 2. 

“12 Years” star Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave”) lost his slim lead in Best Actor and now is tied at 10 votes apiece with Robert Redford (“All is Lost“). However, because Ejiofor is still ranked higher overall on more ballots, he has a slight edge in the odds with 21/10 versus 23/10 odds. Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“) and Tom Hanks (“Captain Phillips“) have one vote apiece and 11/2 and 13/2 odds respectively.

While two of the featured players in “12 Years” still are tipped to take the supporting awards, their leads have lessened this week: Lupita Nyongo drops to 12 votes and odds of 21 to 10 (down from 2 to 1) while one-time frontrunner Oprah Winfrey (“The Butler“) picked up one vote to get into the double digits again with 10 Experts now backing her bid; thus her odds increased to 12 to 5 (from 27 to 10). Michael Fassbender continues to hold a one-vote edge over Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“). That is good enough for odds of 21/10 versus 12/5. 

Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine“) continues to dominate the Best Actress category with 17 votes and odds of 17/5 (down from 13/8) while Sandra Bullock in “Gravity” has chipped into her lead with five votes and odds of 27/10 (up a tick from 14/5). 

See the full list of odds and rankings here. And see how each Expert ranks each category here.

What do you think is going to win Best Picture? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

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