Can Golden Globes rescue ‘Argo’s’ Oscar hopes?

Out of the 18 experts predicting the Golden Globes at Gold Derby, 11 pick “Lincoln,” thus giving it a comfy lead, but I am among the five naysayers who believe “Argo” will win Best Drama Picture and even Best Director.

Balloting for the Globes closed last Wednesday before the Oscars snubbed Ben Affleck. We all know how star struck those members of HFPA can be. Affleck is just the kind of dashing Hollywood hipster they usually adore and he and producer George Clooney, I hear, have been wooing them aggressively behind the scenes. What happens if it triumphs at the Globes?

Many award pundits will pooh-pooh the result as one more case of the Globes getting it wrong – just as they failed to predict the academy’s Best Picture six times in the past eight years. But I believe Globe victories for Best Picture and Director can revive the Oscar hopes of “Argo,” helping to contribute to a growing tide of sympathy and defiant support as Hollywood rallies to Affleck’s wounded side.

Last night, while discussing “Argo’s” recent victory at the Critics Choice Awards, one of Gold Derby’s editors said to me, “Hmmm … isn’t it interesting that ‘Lincoln‘ led the Critics Choice Awards with a record number of nominations, but only won three awards? Could we be overestimating ‘Lincoln’ at the Oscars, too?”

Yes, possibly, and that’s why I haven’t changed my Oscar prediction, still betting on “Argo” to win Best Picture there. I have a hunch it’s going to win DGA or PGA, maybe both. If it doesn’t, I still have time to switch my prediction to “Lincoln,” but for now I sense something odd going on. All of us “experts” need to concede the possibility that everything – how we usually predict these derbies – may be different this year because of the change in the Oscar voting calendar. In the past, the Oscars followed all of the other awards, usually rubber-stamping the results. Now they’ve jumped ahead of a few awards in the early part of the derby and we see significant differences in the list of nominations. Winners are still picked in late February, though. Voters may return to their old pattern of rubber-stamping previous winners and we won’t see it coming because we are reading too much into tea leaves within the nominees.

Let us not forgot that there was one example of a film winning Best Picture at the Oscars without its director getting nommed: “Driving Miss Daisy.” Another exception could occur this year if Affleck prevails at the Globes and gives the performance of his life at the podium.

See Gold Derby’s latest racetrack odds on the Globes here.

6 thoughts on “Can Golden Globes rescue ‘Argo’s’ Oscar hopes?

  1. Changing dates had nothing to do with it. I don’t think, at least. Academy members had PLENTY of time to see Argo. It was probably a case of “well Ben Affleck is safe but I’d really like to see _____ nominated too” same thing for Bigelow or maybe they just didn’t see ZD30 in time.

  2. With the way Argo was trending before Oscar noms, I think these votes are more a reflection of their feelings at the time instead of anyone rushing to defend it. If it gets SAG ensemble, then you may have something there.

  3. That’s been my prediction about Lincoln since I saw it in early December that it wouldn’t do as well with the awards as people thought it would. But with Affleck and Bigelow out at the Oscars, now I have to wonder if Lincoln takes best film after all. I also have to wonder if Life of Pi’s chances are better than I thought they were. I think no matter what happens, no film really sweeps this year. I predict the love will be spread around and there will be a few surprises. And hopefully this year I don’t have to listen to any film snobs say, “what a boring ceremony, everything went exactly how I knew it would go.”

  4. This is way the AMPA hints that it does not want Argo and ZDT to be the Best Picture. Why? People have talked about ZDT’s controversy about torture and the issue is quite obvious. How about Argo? If you think outside the box, the problem will be very obvious. The movie is about CIA using Hollywood to achieve a foreign objective. Does Hollywood want to be seen as a willing agent of the CIA in the eyes of foreign governments, and is this a good thing to be viewed in this light for the US motion picture business overseas? Is getting mired in politics or controversy good for business as a whole?

  5. The Oscar director nomination snub for Affleck and Bigelow is way the AMPA hints that it does not want Argo and ZDT to be the Best Picture. Why? People have talked about ZDT’s controversy about torture and the issue is quite obvious. How about Argo? If you think outside the box, the problem will be very obvious. The movie is about CIA using Hollywood to achieve a foreign objective. Does Hollywood want to be seen as a willing agent of the CIA in the eyes of foreign governments, and is this a good thing to be viewed in this light for the US motion picture business overseas? Is getting mired in politics or controversy good for business as a whole?

  6. The only logical theory is that everyone assumed that everyone else would nominate Affleck. So in the end no one voted for him and ruined everything. Here’s to write in votes! If everyone who wanted him to win in the first place writes him in as they should. And he gets most of the actors on his side he could actually win. Considering how huge the acting branch of the academy is compared to the rest.

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