Watch Oscar experts battle over those ‘crazy’ races for Best Picture and Director

Good thing HuffPo film editor Chris Rosen has a jolly sense of humor. Soon after entertainment editor Michael Hogan and I raise him up as a model of Oscar punditry for picking “Argo” early on to win Best Picture, we tear him down in this webcam chat for his wacky prophesy that Michael Haneke (“Amour“) will win Best Director.

Hogan (politely) labels the Hanake call “crazy,” but he declines my invitation to join me in knocking some Oscar sense into Rosen. “I’m afraid to pile on,” he says. “I have visions of this happening and then Chris doing a war dance over my dead body.”

But I can’t hold back, so I lambast Rosen for “hanging from a shaky twig on a thin limb that’s dangling over a precipice.” Watch the panic on his face as Rosen scrambles to defend the indefensible.

“I don’t think it has zero chance of happening!” he insists. “I know people like Steven Spielberg and he could easily win, but there hasn’t really been that much juice around him and, as far I know, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama don’t get to vote for the Oscars. Maybe Ang Lee is a legitimate option since that film certainly has a lot of support with 11 nominations. But it’s a crazy year … so why not Michael Hanake? Who cares?”

Weighing the possibility that Lee might win the helmer’s laurels, Hogan gasps, “That would be so weird if he did that again!”

The first two times that Lee got nominated for Best Director, that category went to a film that didn’t win Best Picture. When he won for “Brokeback Mountain,” “Crash” pulled off a jawdropper for Best Picture. When he was nominated for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” Steven Soderbergh (“Traffic”) won Best Director and “Gladiator” won Best Picture.

“Call it the Ang Lee effect!” Hogan roars.

See the predictions of 25 leading Oscarologists in all categories here. See the racetrack odds and rankings that are generated when those predictions are combined.

9 thoughts on “Watch Oscar experts battle over those ‘crazy’ races for Best Picture and Director

  1. Well at first I thought the same thing. Haneke can’t win but with Affleck sweeping everything, best director is wide open, barring a DGA surprise. So that gives Academy freedom to whatever they want and chances are they won’t pick DGA also rans or Zeitlen who is just happy to be there. So it’s down to Russell and Haneke. Flip a coin and hope it comes down correctly in that case.

  2. tom you are a genius. every year just when i am getting a serious case of awards fatigue, you bring out a cute movie geek. i’m being funny but he’s a cutie. this really is one of the wildest awards seasons since i got hooked on all things oscar. by now i generally have a pretty good idea who’s going to take most everything (and i don’t have the worst track record at picking them), but for every decisive reason why X should and will win, there is an equally good reason why Y or Z will win. it’s going to be lincoln. unless it’s argo, or les miserables. unless ZDT wins. about the only thing i’m sure of is, daniel day-lewis will definitely not win supporting actress.

  3. Haneke has got a shot, for sure. They seem to feel a lot of amour for Amour. (Yes, I regret making that joke.) But I have a very strong gut feeling I can’t ignore that it’s Ang Lee that wins. And it will all be because the effects on that tiger were grrrrrrreat! (I regret making that joke too.)

  4. PLEASE have these guys on more Tom! There was SO much energy and humor and FUN in this webcast. The three of you really played off well against each other. It’s such a stark contrast from so many other ho hum Oscar webcasts/podcasts.

  5. The King’s Speech is Argo? No, if anything, The King’s Speech is Lincoln. Lincoln got the exact same nominations as The King’s Speech with the Oscars, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice and the SAGs. Argo is what would have happened if David Fincher had been snubbed for The Social Network. And it’s not just the directors branch that ignored Argo; the cinematographers branch and the art directors branch didn’t nominate Argo either. Add on the fact that Lincoln has nearly twice as many nominations as Argo. It seems like the Academy really likes Lincoln, and not even the precursors are going to change that. How many of you have actually moved Argo up on your personal top ten just because the precursors have rewarded it?

  6. And Rotten Tomatoes? Really Tom? The one review site that doesn’t distinguish between “masterpiece” and “not bad”? Look at the average ratings on RT, or look at Metacritic, or look at, or look at the top tens on MovieCityNews; you won’t find Argo on top.

  7. I really really enjoyed that video. (: I like seeing you guys get such a kick out of each other and this years wild Oscar race.

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