Experts: ‘Argo’ threatens ‘Lincoln’s’ lead in Oscar Best Picture race

While “Lincoln” continues to lead the Oscar race for Best Picture, “Argo” is closing in fast, according to the latest predictions of 24 experts polled by Gold Derby.

Lincoln” is the choice of 13 top Oscarologists, giving it 7-to-2 odds, compared to 10 for “Argo” (4-to-1 odds) and 1 for “Silver Linings Playbook” (13 to 2). See full odds rundown here.

-ADDPREDICTION:85:4:Click to predict Best Picture Oscar:ADDPREDICTION-

When Academy Awards nominations were unveiled, “Lincoln” seemed to be way out front since it led with the most nominations – 12 – that’s just two shy of the record held by “Titanic” and “All About Eve.” The pic with the most bids prevails more than two-thirds of the time, historically speaking.

But “Lincoln” also led with the most Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards nominations recently, then ended up losing to “Argo,” thus mixing up prognosticators’ tea leaves. While Critics Choice tends to be a key Oscar indicator, agreeing on Best Picture 10 times in the past 13 years, the Golden Globe does not, concurring only twice in the past 8 years.

The 10 pundits who now pick “Argo” to bag the top Oscar too are: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Guy Lodge (Hitfix), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Chuck Walton (Fandango) and me.

Backing “Lincoln”: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Richard Horgan (Mediabistro), Dave Karger (Fandango), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Alex Suskind (Moviefone), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indiewire), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Betting on “Silver Linings Playbook”: Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere).

See how of the Oscarologists rank the contenders in all categories here. See their combined predictions and racetrack odds here.

2 thoughts on “Experts: ‘Argo’ threatens ‘Lincoln’s’ lead in Oscar Best Picture race

  1. So who wins best director if Argo gets picture? That happening would really mix up the director race. If Argo wins, I’d put my money on Ang Lee getting best director, because it seems like Life of Pi is the frontrunner to get a lot of technical awards. I’d call cinematography, visual effects, sound editing, and maaaaybe score. Personally it wasn’t my favorite music score of the year, but others seem to really like it.

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