All of you who had Cate Blanchett among your top five Comedy/Musical Actress choices need to replace her with another contender. Likewise, you will need to bump one of your top five Drama Actress picks to make room for her there if you expect Blanchett to reap a bid in that category when nominations are announced on Dec. 12.
It makes sense for Sony Pictures Classics to position this Woody Allen film about a woman on the verge as a drama at the Globes.
After all, six of the last 10 Drama Actress champs went on to take home Oscars (seven if you count Kate Winslet, who won the Globe in 2008 for “Revolutionary Road” but got the Oscar for “The Reader,” which had won her the supporting prize at the Globes) whereas only three of the last 10 Comedy/Musical Actress winners have repeated at the Oscars: Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line,” 2005), Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose,” 2007) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook,” 2012).
Blanchett is our current Oscar frontrunner but faces a growing threat from Sandra Bullock who is showcased in the smash hit “Gravity.” If Blanchett can beat Bullock — who won both the Drama Globe and Oscar in 2009 for “The Blind Side” — at the Globes then she is better positioned to prevail at the Oscars also.
Conversely, with the Comedy/Musical Globe categories having fewer competitors, classifying “Before Midnight” as a laffer opens up the possibility of bids for the film as well as leads Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke. The pair, along with helmer Richard Linklater, are also strong contenders for their screenplay at both the Globes and the Oscars.