What do Critics’ Choice Awards tell us about Oscars?

The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the best barometers for predicting the Oscars. (Read report on the nominations here and see full list here.)

With many of the categories at these kudos having six slots, they have done well at foreseeing the eventual five Oscar nominees.

Over their 18-year, these awards bestowed by the Broadcast Film Critics Assn.have proven to be the most accurate precursor prizes to the Oscars predicting 12 Best Picture, 12 Best Actor, 10 Best Actress, 11 Supporting Actress and nine Supporting Actor winners.

Below, an analysis of this year’s BFCA nominations in the top six categories, including handicapping the likelihood of their previewing the eventual roster at the Oscars. 

BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

The BFCA lineup includes our top nine Oscar frontrunners for Best Picture. The BFCA snubbed our 10th pic, “The Butler,” in favor of “Dallas Buyers Club” which we have ranked 15th.

Last year, the BFCA foresaw eight of the the nine Best Picture nominees: “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Les Miserables,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” Silver Linings Playbook,” “Zero Dark Thirty.” They opted for “The Master” and “Moonrise Kingdom” over eventual Oscar contender “Amour.” Both the BFCA and the Oscars went with “Argo.” 
 

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity
Paul Greengrass, “Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, “Her
Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, “American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street

Cuaron has claimed the lion’s share of critics awards and he leads our Oscar predictions for Best Director. Four of the other BFCA nominees make our cut for the Oscar, with Jonze down in eighth place.

Last year, the BFCA presaged three of the Best Director Oscar nominees: Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”); David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”); Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”). Snubbed Ben Affleck won the Critics’ Choice award while Lee took home the Oscar.
 

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, “American Hustle
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, “Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, “All is Lost

All but Bale rank in our top five contenders for Best Actor at the Oscars ; he is ranked seventh behind Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) who had to settle for a Comedy Actor bid from the BFCA.

Last year, the BFCA foresaw all five of the the eventual Best Actor nominees — Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”),  Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master”) and Denzel Washington (“Flight”) — with Day-Lewis winning both awards. 

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, “Gravity
Judi Dench, “Philomena
Brie Larson, “Short Term 12
Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, “Saving Mr. Banks

All but Larson make the cut for our final five in the Best Actress race at the Oscars. Larson ranks 10th on that list while our sixth place Amy Adams (“American Hustle”) had to be content with a Comedy Actress bid at the BFCA.

Last year, the BFCA predicted the Best Actress lineup at the Oscars — Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild) and Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”) — with Chastain winning over the critics but losing the Oscar to Lawrence. 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, “Rush
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, “Enough Said
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club

Absent from this list is Tom Hanks (“Saving Mr. Banks”) who sits in third place on our list of Best Supporting Actor contenders at the Oscars. At this point, we don’t foresee Oscar nominations for Bruhl (#7 on our list) and Gandolfini (#8). 

Hanks should take heart from the fact that last year the BFCA foresaw four of the five Oscar nominees — Alan Arkin (“Argo”), Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”) and Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”) — but nominated Javier Bardem (“Skyfall#”) and Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike”) over eventual Oscar winner Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained“). The BFCA winner was Hoffman. 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson, “Her
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle
Lupita Nyongo, “12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County
June Squibb, “Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, “The Butler

All but Johannson figure in our top contenders for Best Supporting Actress nominees at the Oscars. While critics are gushing about her voice performance in “Her,” she ranks only 10th on our list of likely Oscar nominees. 

Last year, the BFCA got four of the eventual Oscar nomines — Amy Adams (“The Master”);  Sally Field (“Lincoln”); Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”); Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”) — but went with Judi Dench (“Skyfall”) and Ann Dowd (“Compliance”) over eventual Oscar nominee Jacki Weaver (“Silver Linings Playbook”). Hathway won over both the BFCA and the academy. 

Who do you think is going to win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu.

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