Ben Affleck wins DGA Award — Will he wreak Oscar revenge next?

Ben Affleck (“Argo“) continued his romp through Hollywood’s industry awards by winning top laurels from the Directors’ Guild of America on Saturday night after earlier victories at the Producers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild (Best Ensemble). He beat four previous DGA champs: Kathryn Bigelow (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Tom Hooper (“Les Miserables”), Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) and Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”). (See full list of winners here.)

Now “Argo” seems like the likely winner of Best Picture at the Oscars next even though Affleck isn’t nominated by academy members for Best Director. Only once in modern times has a movie managed to win Best Picture without its helmer nommed (“Driving Miss Daisy,” 1989), but “Argo” seems like a good candidate to be the next exception. In the 64-year history of the DGA prize, the movie that won Best Director went on to bag the Oscar for Best Picture 50 times.

However, there was one film, historically speaking, that may presage bad news for “Argo.” After its helmer Ron Howard wasn’t nominated for Best Director at the Oscars, “Apollo 13” (1995) won DGA, PGA and SAG, then lost the Academy Award for Best Picture to “Braveheart.”

Mel Gibson‘s historical war drama had a secret advantage over its rivals that year, though. It was the first major awards contender ever to send out a screener to voters. Nowadays voters get DVDs of all top nominees, so “Argo” faces an even playing field. Also, “Argo’s” kudos sweep is more complete. It won Best Drama Picture at the Golden Globes, which “Braveheart” failed to do. “Braveheart” lost to “Sense and Sensibility.”

Affleck’s triumph over Spielberg at DGA has eery similarities to the Directors Guild contest in 1985. Back then, Spielberg won for “The Color Purple” even though he wasn’t nominated for Best Director at the Oscars. That marked the first time such an oddity had ever occurred. Since then, the only other person to repeat the phenom was Ron Howard. “The Color Purple” not only failed to win Best Picture, it also lost all of its 10 other bids, thus tying “The Turning Point’s” record for suffering the worst shut-out in Oscar history.

Affleck’s victory for “Argo” at DGA had been correctly foreseen by 13 of the 16 leading Oscarologists making at predictions at Gold Derby. The other three had opted for Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln“). There are 25 pundits predicting Academy Awards at Gold Derby – 22 bet on “Argo,” three on “Lincoln.”

However, 17 out of our 25 prophets believe Spielberg will rebound from his DGA defeat by reaping the Oscar for Best Director, not having to fend off a challenge by Affleck.

-ADDPREDICTION:85:9:Click to predict Best Director Oscar:ADDPREDICTION-

Oscar voting begins this Friday. Winners will be unveiled on Feb. 24.

RELATED: Directors Guild Awards rewind: Steven Spielberg won in 1985 but was snubbed by Oscars

5 thoughts on “Ben Affleck wins DGA Award — Will he wreak Oscar revenge next?

  1. I couldn’t be more thrilled for Lena Dunham! She is such an incredibly talented woman, and has accomplished so much for her age. I’m pretty sure when I was her age, I was busy failing miserably at screenwriting in film school, so I am in awe of her and what she has done in her life. I’m a little bummed Homeland didn’t win tonight, but if it couldn’t be Homeland I’m glad it was Breaking Bad. Fifty-One probably was the best episode of the season.

  2. I was wrong about the DGA, but my point still stands: Argo CANNOT win Best Picture. If it does, Spielberg & Howard should each write the Academy demanding they take back the Best Picture awards for the years each won DGA (Out of Africa & Braveheart, respectively) and give them to The Color Purple & Apollo 13.

  3. Argo still isn’t winning BP! The Academy is not gong to give BP to a film, when they didn’t give it’s director a nod. I don’t see them setting that kind of precedent. If they really did love ‘Argo’ they would have nominated Affleck.

  4. Argo is CLEARLY going to win BP…Lincoln is a far better movie , but Argo strokes the egos of the self centered Hollywood community and THAT has given it the momentum to win

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