Is Don Cheadle (“House of Lies”) Emmys frontrunner because of Globes win?

Despite his impressive movie star career, Don Cheadle‘s recent win at the Golden Globes for “House of Lies” was considered an upset due to his stiff competition in the TV Comedy Actor race.

But now that he’s a proven winner, can Cheadle ride his Globes victory all the way to the Emmys?

At this year’s Golden Globes, Cheadle beat out three past champs in his race: Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock,” 2006, 2008, 2009), Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory,” 2010) and Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes,” 2011).

All four Globes winners — Cheadle, Baldwin, Parsons, LeBlanc — compete against each other again at the Emmys, along with returning Emmy nominees Louis C.K. (“Louie“) and Jason Bateman (“Arrested Development).

According to our exclusive Gold Derby polling based on immediate reactions from the Emmy nominations, Cheadle is down in last place for Comedy Actor. Our early predictions have Louis C.K. winning his first acting Emmy. (We’ll have a much better idea after all of these gentlemen submit their individual episodes to Emmy judges for consideration.)

But how is it that Cheadle can win the Golden Globe but be such an afterthought at the Emmys? One need look at last year’s competitive Comedy Actress Emmy results to see that crazier things have happened.

For the first season of “Enlightened,” Laura Dern won the Golden Globe as Best TV Comedy Actress. Months later, Dern was one of the frontrunners to be nominated at the 2012 Emmys, but was strangely snubbed in a category that made room for seven nominees instead of the usual six: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep“), Zooey Deschanel (“New Girl“), Lena Dunham (“Girls“), Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie“), Tina Fey (“30 Rock“), Melissa McCarthy (“Mike and Molly“) and Amy Poehler (“Parks and Recreation“).

Dern got her eventual revenge for the snub by being nominated  at this year’s Emmys for “Enlightened’s” second and final season, with Deschanel and McCarthy bounced from the race.

In other words, just because the Golden Globes laud you as a winner doesn’t mean the Emmys will follow suit. A vastly different panel of judges decide each set of awards. For the Globes, it’s the members of the relatively small Hollywood Foreign Press Assn., while with the Emmys it’s the prestigious Academy of Television Arts & Sciences.

If there was even the slightest amount of overlap between these two awards shows, then Cheadle should be a real threat indeed to secure his first Emmy win. But look out for two-time Emmy champs Baldwin and Parsons who are each bloodthirsty for a third trophy.

Do you think Cheadle can ride his Globes victory to an Emmy win? Vote below for Comedy Actor using our easy drag-and-drop menu.

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