By canvassing experts, editors and users, Gold Derby has determined that there are eight men still in contention to reap bids for Best Drama Supporting Actor this year. Only six will make the final cut when Emmy nominations are unveiled on July 18.
Those men with odds to win of better than 100/1 from any group in our poll — our Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users, and Overall Users — are profiled below.
This category is one where change is guaranteed since three of last year’s contenders are not on the ballot: Brendan Coyle (“Downton Abbey”), Giancarlo Esposito (“Breaking Bad”), and Jared Harris (“Mad Men”).
Two-time champ Aaron Paul (“Breaking Bad“) is the current leader with odds of 9/4. Although no man has ever won this category three times, he has the backing of 11 Experts, two Editors (Darrin Dortch, David Schnelwar), 10 of our Top 24 Users and 29% of Overall Users. Experts in his corner are Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (TV Guide), Mike Cidoni (Associated Press), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), John Kubicek (Buddy TV), Daniel Manu (TV Without Pity), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Matt Roush (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily).
Past Emmy winner Mandy Patinkin (“Homeland“) did not make the cut last year but is in second place at 4/1 with the support of two Experts (Ken Tucker, Entertainment Weekly; Glenn Whipp, L.A. Times), one Editor (Daniel Montgomery), three of our Top 24 Users, and 19% of Overall Users.
Veteran actor Sam Waterston (“The Newsroom“) is eligible for the first time for his freshman show. He is ranked fourth with odds of 10/1 based on votes from two Editors (Rob Licuria, Matt Noble) and 6% of Overall Users.
For the last two nominee slots, there is a tie at 12/1 odds between Corey Stoll (“House of Cards“) and Jonathan Banks (“Breaking Bad”). Stoll has the vote of one Editor (Chris Beachum) and one of the Top 24 Users while Banks also has one Editor’s vote (Marcus Dixon). Both men have 7% of the Overall User support.
Just outside of the nominee pool is Noah Emmerich (“The Americans“) at 33/1. And in eighth place is Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (“Game of Thrones”) at 50/1. If either man is nominated, it would be their first time at the Emmys.
No other men have better than 100/1 odds. An impressive list of previous nominees are predicted to be left out: Jim Carter (“Downton Abbey“), Josh Charles and Alan Cumming (“The Good Wife“), Walton Goggins (“Justified“), and John Slattery (“Mad Men“). And, among those other men expected to be snubbed are Critics Choice champ Michael Cudlitz (“Southland“), Bobby Cannavale (“Boardwalk Empire“), Rob James-Collier (“Downton Abbey”), and the late Larry Hagman (“Dallas“).
Who do you think will win? Make your picks below.