In looking at the graph above, notice how C.K. only gained his lead in recent weeks. When nominations were announced on July 18, two-time champs Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory“) and Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock“) were out front, but the support for both men has declined.
While C.K. has won four Emmys for writing (including one last weekend for his variety special “Oh My God”), he has never prevailed in a performance category. If he does triumph on Sunday, he would be the first to do it in this category for playing himself since Jack Benny (“The Jack Benny Program,” 1959).
Currently, C.K. leads the experts’ predictions with 2 to 3 odds over both Baldwin and Parsons at 9 to 2. All three other nominees – Jason Bateman (“Arrested Development“), Don Cheadle (“House of Lies“), and Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes“) – are tied for last place at at 100 to 1. See full odds rundown here.
A majority of experts (11 of 17) are backing C.K.: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), A.J. Hammer (CNN HLN Showbiz Tonight), Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Ken Tucker (freelance), and Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times).
Debra Birnbaum (TV Guide Magazine), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), and Piya Sinha-Roy (Reuters) choose Parsons. Mike Cidoni (Associated Press), Daniel Manu (TelevisionWithoutPity), and Melanie McFarland (IMDB) are picking Baldwin.
Five of eight Gold Derby’s editors also bet on C.K.: Rob Licuria, Matt Noble, David Schnelwar, O’Neil, and Sheehan. Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Daniel Montgomery are backing Parsons. See their rankings.
Our Top 24 Users who scored best last year when predicting Emmys are also favoring C.K. (13 of 24). Seven of those people choose Parsons, and four go for Baldwin. See their breakdown. Compare that to what all of our site users think: 49% pick C.K., 22% predict Baldwin, and 19% say Parsons. See more.
Episodes submitted to the Emmy judges for each actor are: Baldwin (“A Goon’s Deed in a Weary World”), Bateman (“Flight of the Phoenix”), Cheadle (“Hostile Takeover”), C.K. (“Daddy’s Girlfriend, Part 1”), LeBlanc (“Episode 202”), and Parsons (“The Habitation Configuration”).
Below: Make your predictions now and try to beat the experts.