When we invited 15 Emmy experts to predict nominations, we asked them to rank contenders in each category according to likelihood of winning. Over all, they fared pretty well with their forecasts compared to the real list of nominees (see those here), so now let’s look back at their original rankings and racetrack odds to forecast who’ll win.
Note: In the acting categories, we do not yet know what sample episodes the nominees intend to submit to Emmy juries. Usually, the strongest entries win. Many of these predictions may change drastically after Gold Derby reports the titles of the episodes and we offer in-depth analysis.
BEST COMEDY SERIES: Reigning titleholder “Modern Family” leads by a wide margin among the Experts polled by Gold Derby. Ten of our 15 pundits pick “Modern Family,” compared to 2 for “The Big Bang Theory” and 1 for “Louie.” The score among our Editors: 3 for “Modern Family,” 3 for “The Big Bang Theory” and 1 for “Louie.” “Modern Family” has already won 3 times in a row. Only 3 shows in TV history have prevailed 4 times (“All in the Family,” “Cheers”) or more (5 for “Frasier”).
BEST DRAMA SERIES: Seven Experts predict a repeat victory for last year’s champ “Homeland,” but 6 say “Breaking Bad,” 1 says “Downton Abbey” and 1 bows to “Game of Thrones.” Gold Derby’s Editors disagree strongly, preferring “Breaking Bad” over “Homeland” by a 6-to-3 vote, with 1 maverick picking “Game of Thrones.” “Breaking Bad” has lost 4 times, but many shows did not nab a victory until their fifth bid, including “24” and “The Sopranos.” This year “Breaking Bad” may have an edge because it will be airing its final episodes during the Emmy voting period.
BEST COMEDY ACTOR: Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”) is the fave to pick up his third prize in this category, according to both Experts and Editors. He’s backed by 7 Experts, while 6 choose Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory“) and 2 predict Louis C.K. (“Louie”). Editors’ scores: 5 for Baldwin and 2 for Louis C.K.
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS: Last year’s champ was Emmy darling Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep“) who has the overwhelming support of 12 Experts, while 2 pick Lena Dunham (“Girls”) and 1 opts for Tina Fey (“30 Rock“). Louis-Dreyfus also leads among our Editors (5), but by a much smaller margin as 3 choose Fey and 1 backs Dunham.
BEST DRAMA ACTOR: Experts pick 3-time category champ Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) while our Editors opt for last year’s victor Damian Lewis (“Homeland“). Experts’ scores: 12 for Cranston, 3 for Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards“). Editors’ scores: 4 for Lewis, 3 for Cranston, 2 for Spacey.
To see more predix, click through the category links in our charts predicting Emmy nominations. Note that not all predix match actual nominees.