When Emmy Award nominations are unveiled Thursday morning at 8:35 a.m. ET, Netflix’s new “House of Cards” will become the first web-based series to compete in a top category, according to the predictions of 15 top media experts polled by GoldDerby.com. They believe it will be nominated for Best Drama Series along with “Breaking Bad,” “Downton Abbey,” “Game of Thrones,” “Homeland” and “Mad Men.” “Breaking Bad” and last year’s champ “Homeland” are tied with the best racetrack odds to win (27 to 10).
The experts are sharply divided over whether or not Netflix’s “Arrested Development” will make the list for Best Comedy Series. Seven say it will be nominated: Debra Birnbaum (TV Guide Magazine), Mike Cidoni and Lynn Elber (Associated Press), John Kubicek (Buddy TV), Ken Tucker, Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) and myself. However, eight gurus don’t place “Arrested Development” in their rankings: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Daniel Manu (Television Without Pity), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times).
When all of their predictions are combined, they say that the comedy contenders will be “30 Rock,” “The Big Bang Theory,” “Girls,” “Louie,” “Modern Family” and “Veep.” “Modern Family” gets the best odds (2/1) to prevail for a fourth year in a row, followed by “Big Bang Theory” (4/1), which has never won.
When sizing up the acting races, the experts foresee many first-time nominees: Kerry Washington (“Scandal”), Kaley Cuoco (“Big Bang Theory”), Parker Posey (“Louie”), Monica Potter (“Parenthood), Morena Baccarin (“Homeland”), Corey Stoll (“House of Cards”).
Lots of past champs are forecast to win again: Julia Louis-Dreyfus in “Veep” (Best Comedy Actress), Jim Parsons in “The Big Bang Theory” (Best Comedy Actor), Bryan Cranston in “Breaking Bad” (Best Drama Actor) and Claire Danes in “Homeland” (Best Drama Actress).