Which of last year’s Emmy winners has the worst odds to repeat?

Year after year, the Emmys seem to reward the same performers and shows over and over again, essentially churning out TV reruns. In fact, out of the eight major acting Emmy races for series last year, only one winner — Damian Lewis (Drama Lead Actor, “Homeland“) — took his very first trip to the podium.

We can expect several former champions to win again this year, that’s a given. But which of last year’s winners has the worst odds to repeat?

As a refresher, the four drama acting races in 2012 were won by Lewis, Claire Danes (Lead Actress, “Homeland”), Aaron Paul (Supporting Actor, “Breaking Bad“) and Maggie Smith (Supporting Actress, “Downton Abbey“).

And the four comedy acting Emmys were awarded to Jon Cryer (Lead Actor, “Two and a Half Men“), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Lead Actress, “Veep“), Eric Stonestreet (Supporting Actor, “Modern Family“) and Julie Bowen (Supporting Actress, “Modern Family”).

This year, Cryer and Stonestreet were unceremoniously slapped by the Emmy hand that fed them only one year ago, but the other six acting champs are nominated again for the same roles.

According to Gold Derby’s exclusive polling of Experts, Editors and Users, the returning champ with the worst odds to receive back-to-back trophies is Aaron Paul. With only 9/2 odds in the Drama Supporting Actor race, Paul ranks third behind category leaders Jonathan Banks (also from “Breaking Bad”) and Mandy Patinkin (“Homeland”).

It’s worth noting that no man has ever won the Drama Supporting Actor prize more than twice, and this may be Paul’s biggest handicap, since he already claimed victory in 2010 and 2012. The only other two-time winners in this category are Stuart Margolin (“The Rockford Files”), Michael Conrad (“Hill Street Blues”), Larry Drake (“L.A. Law”) and Ray Walston (“Picket Fences”).

Gold Derby has learned exclusively that the episode Paul submitted to Emmy judges this year is “Buyout.” Whether or not Paul’s performance in the episode will prove as successful as his past Emmy-winning entries, “Half Measures” (2010) and “End Times” (2012), remains to be seen.

The other five returning champs come in either first or second place in their respective categories. Leading the pack are Louis-Dreyfus for Comedy Lead Actress (1/3 odds) for the episode “Running,” and Danes for Drama Lead Actress (8/15 odds) for the episode “Q&A.”

Lewis (23/10 odds) also submitted the episode “Q&A” and comes in second place behind Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) in the tough Drama Lead Actor race. Smith (9/4 odds) went with “Episode 3.01” and trails behind Anna Gunn (“Breaking Bad”) for Drama Supporting Actress. And Bowen (19/10 odds) hopes to beat Jane Krakowski (“30 Rock“) in the Comedy Supporting Actress category with her episode “My Hero.”

Find out if Paul can overcome his odds when Neil Patrick Harris hosts the 65th Primetime Emmys on CBS September 22. Make your own predictions in the Drama Supporting Actor race below:

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