Currently, “Louie” ranks second in our Emmy predictions for Best Comedy Series, based on support from one expert, five editors, and more than 60 users. It trails “Modern Family,” which gets best odds to win its fourth consecutive prize; that would tie it with “Cheers” and “All in the Family” and leave it one Emmy shy of “Frasier,” which holds the record with five Comedy Series wins.
But can “Louie’s” David defeat the “Modern” Goliath with only six nominations? Though nomination totals aren’t as telling at the Emmys as they are at the Oscars, where the film with the most bids usually takes Best Picture, it would nevertheless be rare for a comedy with so few nominations to win the top prize.
In the past 20 years, only one program has won Best Comedy with fewer nominations: “The Office,” which won in 2006 with five total bids. Only two others won with fewer than 10: “Frasier” in 1997 (nine) and “Arrested Development” in 2004 (seven). That could be good news for “Modern Family” and “30 Rock,” the only two Best Comedy nominees this year with more than 10 nominations.
However, “Louie” is at a unique disadvantage when it comes to tallying total nominations: Louis C.K. is the only regular actor on the series, which means the show is only eligible to compete for Comedy Actor and the two guest categories (Melissa Leo picked up a Comedy Guest Actress nod this year). And because C.K. writes and directs almost every episode himself, he is limited in his number of possible submissions in those categories as well. So even though “30 Rock” earned two nominations for writing and “Modern Family” received six for acting, that doesn’t necessarily indicate greater support from those branches of the TV Academy.
And sometimes total nominations can be deceiving. We learned that last year in the Drama Series race when “Homeland” (with nine nominations) toppled “Mad Men” (17) and “Downton Abbey” (16). An even more dramatic upset took place in 1998, when “The Practice” won Best Drama with four bids, up against “NYPD Blue” (10), “ER” (16), and “The X-Files” (16).
Will “Louie” pull off a similar feat? Make your Best Comedy predictions below: