Golden Globes switcheroos: Good for Meryl Streep but bad for Cate Blanchett?

With the Weinstein Company pitching “August: Osage County” to Golden Globe voters as a laffer, Meryl Streep certainly has a better shot at winning while Cate Blanchett could be in trouble with “Blue Jasmine” being touted as a drama.

“August” received just so-so reviews at the Toronto filmfest and Streep faced strong competition for Drama Actress, even before Sony Pictures Classics decided to position Blanchett there. Indeed, with that switcheroo, Streep won’t be facing any other likely Oscar contenders in the Comedy/Musical Actress category. The Globes darling – she’s won eight of her 27 bids — should walk away with another trophy for her crowded mantle. 

Likewise, Bruce Dern would have had to face an onslaught of A-list stars if “Nebraska” were entered as a drama, including Robert Redford (“All is Lost“), Tom Hanks (“Captain Phillips“), and Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“). Given the Globes’ love of celebrities, a character actor like Dern might not even have earned a nomination. But in Comedy/Musical Actor, where he’s the likeliest Oscar candidate in the field, he is suddenly the man to beat.

The drama races are a battleground, which makes the decision to push “Blue Jasmine” in those categories even more surprising. Blanchett will be pitted against her chief Oscar rival: Sandra Bullock (“Gravity“) and that’s a risky gambit.

Aloss to Bullock will halt Blanchett’s momentum, especially as “Gravity” will have broader support from the academy. Sure, over in comedy/musical, Blanchett would have had to compete against Streep, but Streep is beatable, especially when facing the Oscar frontrunner. That happened just last year, when she was nominated for “Hope Springs” and lost to eventual Oscar champ Jennifer Lawrence for “Silver Linings Playbook.”

“Blue Jasmine” really is a comedy — a dark, pessimistic comedy, sure, but “Crimes and Misdemeanors” it’s not. It’s common for dramas to try to enter the comedy/musical races where the competition is less steep — really, did anyone other than the Weinsteins and HFPA think “My Week with Marilyn” was a comedy? — but it’s rare for a film to go in the opposite direction.

Amy Adams is a wild card. “American Hustle” still hasn’t screened, and it could ultimately land in either race. Though it might seem difficult for a new candidate to shake things up at the last minute, remember that Jessica Chastain didn’t seem like a major factor for “Zero Dark Thirty” last year until late in the game.

Best Drama Actor is even more crowded. Four actors have a legitimate shot at this stage: Redford, Hanks, and McConaughey, as well as Chiwetel Ejiofor in current Best Picture frontrunner “12 Years a Slave.” Ejiofor doesn’t have the name recognition of his competitors — like Quvenzhane Wallis last year, he’s the actor whose name Oscarologists most need to learn how to pronounce — but he’s certainly familiar to Golden Globes voters, who have nominated him three times before.

When it comes to winning, though, he’d probably have a better shot if “12 Years” were a comedy, but, alas, even the HFPA probably wouldn’t go for that.

16 thoughts on “Golden Globes switcheroos: Good for Meryl Streep but bad for Cate Blanchett?

  1. Why do you guys still feel like Saving Mr. Banks will go in Drama? People who’ve seen it said it was funny & there was laughter going on… it’s lighter than other films… So don’t you think it will go in Comedy/Musical (aka: could we please have it as a predicting option there). And why was Philomena moved to Drama?… Did Weinstein Co. release anything on that?! I imagine that would go in Comedy also (at least judging by the poster)

    thanks.

  2. I’m not sure if the Globes have as much of an impact on the Oscars as they used too. When Blanchett won the Oscar for The Aviator, she did not win the Globe. I would say SAG and BAFTA are clearer indicators. With SAG, Blue Jasmine is more of an actor’s role. And considering that Daniel Day Lewis is the only lead film actor to have won the SAG more than once – lessens Bullock’s chances. Whereas Blanchett has never won lead film actor. Blanchett is also in a much stronger position to win BAFTA than Bullock..

  3. Woody Allen will be given the Cecil B. DeMille award at the Globes. He will be making a rare public appearance. Cate Blanchett has held on to her front runner status since Jul – despite all the attention Gravity has gotten.

  4. Still Cate. I’ve enjoyed other movies but not felt as stunned with WOW! What acting! at the end of any of them like I was with Blue Jasmine. It was the first thing that struck me when the movie ended, a powerful full-range performance, unique, and all Cate.

  5. It is so so sooo lame and shallow when people say that streep is beatable coz jeniffer lawrence did beat her with Silver Linnings Playbook. Streep will be always the best, her only competition his streep herself. she lost Academy awards so many times to other actresses that doesnt make them better than her. Even this year also if Cate blanchett beats her that doesnt make her better than streep. She’s a incredibly talented versatile actress and not to mention a legend, It’s so shallow to compare her with kids like jennifer lawrence.

  6. “but Streep is beatable, especially when facing the Oscar frontrunner. That happened just last year, when she was nominated for “Hope Springs” and lost to eventual Oscar champ Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.” ……… seriously? thats ridiculous, I dont think streep even had a proper competition, even I dont think she works for awards anymore, she just works because she loves it. Streep will be never beatable when it comes to taklent and acting skill.

  7. The Golden Globes love and appreciate Meryl Streep, they always have. I would say she is pretty much a lock for Best Comedy Actress for August. She will not win an Oscar for August, however. She and the other 3 actresses stand no chance in beating Cate Blanchett this year. Everybody knows that, and if you don’t, you are kidding yourself.

  8. Streep wouldnt win oscar this year anyway becoz she just won 2 years ago, the more oscar you win the more difficult it becomes to win next time. But nobody can deny the woman is amazing, she can portray any type of role and can merge herself into each and every kind of character and absolutely no one is better than her. However this year Cate Blanchett is brilliant in Blue Jasmine so she’s going to win.

  9. Blanchett’s performance this year is jaw dropping. And Streep is already altime favorite she doesn’t need anymore awards to prove that. I read somewhere she doesnt have place to keep trophies anymore, she lost a people’s choice award trophy which was sold in ebay. She didn’t even notice it until a fan informed her by email :p

  10. Cate Blanchett is different, she’s taken for hardcore drama or serious roles, but Streep is versatile, can portray anything. And whats all this fuss about Jennifer Lawrence I dont understand, she doesnt even stand in the same row with these actresses. Just because she won an Oscar?

  11. Do not underestimate Meryl Streep. Just because the reviews were mixed in Toronto does not mean anything. A lot can happen between now and the oscar time.

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