Updated Oscar predictions from 23 Experts: ’12 Years a Slave’ poised to sweep

A week after opening in limited release to rave reviews and respectable box office, “12 Years a Slave”  still leads the Best Picture lineup at the Oscars with 15 pundits picking it to prevail. That support gives it odds of 7 to 2. Compare that to five votes and odds of 11 to 2 for the blockbuster smash “Gravity” and three votes and odds of 15 to 2 for the still-unseen “American Hustle.”.

Likewise, for Best Director “12 Years” helmer Steve McQueen is ahead of “Gravity” writer/director Alfonso Cuaron by a score of 13 Experts (and odds of 21 to 10) to seven (and odds of 27 to 10) with “Hustle” writer/director David O. Russell in third with three votes and odds of 11 to 2. 

“12 Years” star Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave”) maintains his slim lead in Best Actor with 11 votes and 23/10 odds, followed closely by Robert Redford (“All is Lost“) with 10 votes and 3/1 odds while Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club“) and Tom Hanks (“Captain Phillips“) have one vote apiece and 11/2 odds.

And two of the featured players in “12 Years” are tipped to take the supporting awards: Lupita Nyongo extends her lead over one-time frontrunner Oprah Winfrey (“The Butler“) to 14 votes (and odds of 2 to 1) versus nine (and odds of 27 to 10) while Michael Fassbender has a one-vote edge over Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“). That is good enough for odds of 9/4 versus 12/5. 

Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine“) continues to dominate the Best Actress category with 18 votes and 13/8 odds, Sandra Bullock in “Gravity” has chipped into her lead with five votes and 14/5 odds.

See the full list of odds and rankings here. And see how each Expert ranks each category here.

What do you think is going to win Best Picture? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

6 thoughts on “Updated Oscar predictions from 23 Experts: ’12 Years a Slave’ poised to sweep

  1. Hi, Paul. Do you know if Brad Pitt, one of “12 Years a Slave” producers, will be eligible if the film is nominated for Best Picture?

  2. @Katie: I doubt anyone can definitely say whether he’s in or not. Pitt is one of 7 credited producers; that will clearly require a trim to 3 (possibly 4) for the Best Picture nom. However, since his own Plan B Entertainment is one of its official production companies it may be very hard to cut him out.
    There is one other consideration, though, that may prevent a sweep: 14 different films have taken four of the top six Oscars, the most recent being “Million Dollar Baby” (the only one to do so since “The Silence of the Lambs”, the last to sweep the top four); but *NO* film has ever won FIVE of the top six, as the experts currently predict for “12 Years a Slave”. I seriously doubt it’ll win all 5; not only has winning 4 of 6 been extremely rare lately, but I’ve always believed preventing a 5-of-6 (or worse) sweep was in part why Meryl Streep was put in Supporting Actress for “Kramer vs. Kramer” against co-star Jane Alexander. The question is, which one will flip the other way to keep it 4 of 6 at most?

  3. 12 Years a Slave is an extraordinary cinematic achievement. I’m not sure how anything else is going to beat it come Oscar night. And Lupita Nyong’o…well, it’ll be criminal if she doesn’t win.

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