Oscars predictions update: Thelma Adams vs. Tom O’Neil (podcast)

“After Critics’ Choice, SAG and Golden Globe nominations, we see at the top there are three movies – ‘12 Years a Slave,’ ‘American Hustle‘ and ‘Gravity‘” that lead the Oscars’ Best Picture race, says Thelma Adams (Yahoo) in a podcast chat with Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby). Adams predicts “12 Years a Slave” will win, but she admits her predictions are still tentative while pundits wait for more tea leaves arriving soon from upcoming guild awards.

“I think there’s no damage calling it ‘12 Years a Slave‘ today,” she adds. “‘American Hustle‘ is the latest, cutest on the block right now, but there’s still some time to see what shifts.”

O’Neil holds firm behind “Gravity” with his predictions, saying, “Yes, ‘American Hustle‘ and ‘12 Years a Slave‘ lead with the most nominations at these precursor awards, but ‘Gravity‘ has a built-in disadvantage. We know it’s not going to get a screenplay nomination. We know Clooney’s not going to get in. But you, Thelma, have Alfonso Cuaron in your number-one position for Best Director, so do I. That often decides the race.”

See how Adams’ and O’Neil’s predictions compare to 25 other leading pundits, including Yahoo’s Kevin Polowyhere. When all predictions are combined, they translate into these rankings and racetrack odds.

Below: Listen Adams and O’Neil battle over all of the top Oscar races while sizing up the recent awards from the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Circle Association and nominations from the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and Critics Choice Awards. Podcast can also be downloaded at iTunes or here.


4 thoughts on “Oscars predictions update: Thelma Adams vs. Tom O’Neil (podcast)

  1. why do you always spend the most time talking about the male acting categories? Best supporting actress was completely left out! I noticed that in every awards ceremony, the male categories seem to be much more important than the female ones….such a disappointment

  2. as an oscar historian by hobby i’ll say this. Jennifer Lawrence is getting supporting nods for american hustle but the academy might pull a kate wisnlet (the reader) and put Jennifer Lawrence in the lead.

  3. @Zeus, I thought the way it works is the studio decides what categories they’ll submit the actors is, not the Academy? Jennifer’s been submitted as BSA, not BA, all along. And she wouldn’t make it in at all if she were to be in the BA category because that category’s too full and fiercely competitive.

  4. @Zeus. You’re crackers. Winslet had a genuine lead role but — because they wanted her as lead for Revolutionary Road — the Weinsteins chose to campaign in supporting for The Reader. There is no way anybody sane could watch American Hustle and come to the conclusion that Lawrence is playing a lead role. She’s off-screen for about 80 percent of the film. @shelly. The Academy can vote whichever way they like. The studios (see above) will chose to campaign one way or the other, but the voters need pay no heed. Anyway, it’s irrelevant in this case, because there’s no way on earth Lawrence qualifies for lead.

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