For its freshman season on Netflix, “House of Cards” reaped bids from the Television Critics Assn. for both Program of the Year and Best New Program but it was not nominated for Best Drama Series at the upcoming kudos.
And the recent rival Critics Choice TV Awards, bestowed by the Broadcast Television Journalists Assn., cited Kevin Spacey and Corey Stoll for their lead and supporting performances respectively but snubbed the show.
However, despite this so-so showing at the precursor awards, our exclusive odds foresee “House of Cards” doing quite well when Emmy nominations are announced Thursday.
We forecast that this update of the 1990 Brit hit will reap a bid for Best Drama Series. With twelve of our 15 experts and six of our eight editors ranking the series among their top six, that support should ensure it makes the cut. However, as none of them is predicting it to prevail and with just 1% of our users forecasting it to win, “House of Cards” is the longshot to take the top prize with odds of 14 to 1.
This precarious position is largely due to it being the first drama series from Netflix or any streaming service to mount a serious Emmy campaign. Executive produced by David Fincher and starring Spacey, a two-time Oscar champ, the show could be seen as the wave of the future ensuring more work for academy members. However, it also could be regarded as an additional threat to the network institutions thus alienating the more traditional voters.
While the show is on the bubble at the Emmys, two-time Oscar contender Fincher is sure to pick up a bid for helming the pilot and Spacey is all but assured to contend for Drama Actor. All of our experts and editors rank him high enough in their top six that he has odds of 11/2 to win his first Emmy. That puts Spacey behind three-time category cham Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad“) and reigning champ Damian Lewis (“Homeland“).
Stoll is likely to fill one of the three vacant slots in the Drama Supporting Actor category. However, with only one editor and a handful of users predicting him to prevail, he is in fifth place with odds of 12/1.
Robin Wright is locked in a battle with other contenders from new series — such as Keri Russell, Connie Britton and Kerry Washington — for a place in the highly competitive Drama Actress race. Currently, in seventh place, she may just miss out on landing her first Emmy nomination.
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