Editors showdown: Will ‘Louie’ win Best Comedy Series at Emmys?

Gold Derby founder Tom O’Neil believes that the FX laffer “Louie” could win Best Comedy Series at this year’s Emmys. 

His rationale:  With “Modern Family” having won three in a row, voter fatigue could mean that Emmy darling Louis C.K., who has the cool factor, is a hot prospect.  Read his full analysis here

Our editors offer their differing opinions on this provocative prediction below. What do you think? Tell us in the comments section below or join the steamy discussion on this topic in our message boards. Make your Emmy predictions here

Writes Rob Licuria:

Louie” is TV poetry. It’s in another league to anything else on TV. And if it is finally nominated, any voter that sees the episodes featuring  Parker PoseyMelissa Leo and especially the season finale (with the most gut-busting hilarious opening sequence of the year), it is primed to take home FX’s first series win.

But let’s wait and see how good “Veep” is. Surely “Modern Family” is done. “Arrested Development” could be the Second Coming, but I can’t see it winning. “Girls” has a very good chance too, but it’s just not that funny; that’ll be it’s downfall. What else is there? “Big Bang Theory”? Probable nominee. “30 Rock”? Yep.  “Nurse Jackie”? I wish.

As Chris Beachum notes: 

From last year’s nominated comedies, the only two that will most likely have more nominations this time are “Louie” and “Girls.” While Lena Dunham had all the momentum last time, it was Louis C.K. who was able to actually win any Emmys (writing for both his series and his special). We will know if “Louie” has even more buzz and a shot at winning as Best Comedy Series if one or more guest stars can get nominated. Within the industry, he is overwhelmingly acclaimed as the top working comedian today. He has 10 (count them TEN) individual chances at 2013 Emmy nominations: writing, directing, producing, editing and starring on his series; writing, directing, producing, editing his HBO special; and guest starring on “Saturday Night Live.”

Daniel Montgomery admits:

I’m not even 100% confident “Louie” will be nominated for Best Comedy (I thought it would last year when it was edged out by “Veep” and “Girls”). I have it in one of the last two slots because I frankly can’t think of other shows I really believe will get in instead. If the show is nominated, it definitely has a shot, but Best Comedy winners tend to skew more conventional. “Louie” would be a completely new direction for them.

We know the Emmys like Louis C.K. and the writers’ branch loves the hell out of him — those were his only two wins last year out of seven nominations. But they haven’t honored anything else about the show yet. Just Louie across the board. That could change this year, hopefully (if s nominated for guest actress, I think she’s close to unbeatable with her episode.), but I’m not completely sure.

However, as Marcus Dixon cautions:

There is precedent for a show winning Best Comedy Writing one year and failing to get a best series nomination the next. Didn’t the same fate befall “Malcolm in the Middle” and “My Name is Earl”? In other words, don’t count your ducklings before they hatch. 

Darrin Dortch concludes:

It’s definitely an interesting theory but I’m not sure “Louie” is mainstream enough to win the top category. No FX series has ever been nominated for Best Comedy.”Girls” won WGA and DGA and “Modern Family” won PGA and WGA. I know everyone is tired of “Modern Family” winning but, right now, there isn’t one strong alternative. “Frasier” and “Cheers” kept winning Best Comedy because they had great material to showcase their actors and writers. You can’t say the same about “Modern Family,” which is why the writing branch snubbed them last year.

“Louie” does have one big advantage this year — it’ll be the only Best Comedy contender nominated across all Emmy branches (series, lead actor, guest acting, writing, directing, techs, etc.). But is that support broad enough (and the show huggable enough) to win? 

Best Comedy winners are more conventional and “Louie” would be a new direction for them. And I think that bodes well for “Louie” since everyone knows these conventional, network comedies are flailing. That’s why half of the Best Comedy nominees last year were from cable series. And that’s why something like “Big Bang Theory” can’t win. It’s too conventional, too safe (notice how the writing never gets nominated.)

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