Prediction: 30 Seconds to Mars will beat odds to win Rock Video at MTV VMAs

BEST ROCK VIDEO
Fall Out Boy – “My Songs Know What You Did In The Dark (Light Em Up)”
Imagine Dragons – “Radioactive
Mumford & Sons – “I Will Wait
30 Seconds To Mars – “Up In The Air
Vampire Weekend – “Diane Young

FRONTRUNNER: 30 Seconds To Mars – “Up In The Air”
TOUGHEST COMPETITION: Imagine Dragons – “Radioactive”

Fall Out Boy are three-time VMA winners, but all in defunct categories. They won the MTV2 Award in 2005, Best Group Video in 2006, and Viewer’s Choice in 2007. They have since lost Best Rock Video twice: for “Beat It” in 2008 and “I Don’t Care” in 2009.  They are likely to lose this year again.

Mumford & Sons were previously nominated in this category for “The Cave” in 2011.  They are nominated this year for “I Will Wait.” The British group won Album of the Year at this year’s Grammy Awards and are hoping to add an MTV moonman to their mantel.

Imagine Dragons were nominated last year for their debut single “It’s Time” and return with their hit “Radioactive.” They may pose a greater threat this year.

Vampire Weekend is critically acclaimed but unlikely to prevail for their music video “Diane Young” off of their third album “Modern Vampires of the City.”

Of these nominees, 30 Seconds to Mars are the only previous winners of Best Rock Video, taking the prize in 2010 for “Kings and Queens.” They are also the only Best Rock Video nominee with nominations in other categories – Cinematography and Art Direction – for their eight-and-a-half-minute video for “Up in the Air.”

If 30 Seconds to Mars wins they will tie Metallica (1991 and 1996), Limp Bizkit (2000 and 2001), and Green Day (2005 and 2009) as two-time winners in this category. Linkin Park has won three times and Aerosmith four.

I predict 30 Seconds to Mars’s “Up In The Air” will win, but Gold Derby’s prediction center disagrees, ranking them third behind Imagine Dragons and Mumford & Sons.

Combining the forecasts of our Editors, Users, and Top 24 Users, it ranks the contenders with the following racetrack odds:

1. Imagine Dragons – 2/3
2. Mumford & Sons – 4/1
3. 30 Seconds to Mars – 15/2
4. Fall Out Boy – 14/1
5. Vampire Weekend – 50/1

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