Historically, the circle has a 40% rate of correctly predicting Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Over the past 10 years, for example, the two kudos agreed four times: “The Artist” (2011), “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “No Country for Old Men” (2007) and “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” (2003). It may be argued that the circle helped to propel a few of those champs to Oscar glory by casting early attention on important indies.
Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave“) won Best Director. Robert Redford (“All is Lost“) and Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine“) won Best Actor and Actress. Laurels for Best Supporting Actor went to Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club“).
The overlap rate between these critics’ awards and the Oscars is less impressive in the acting races. Last year they only agreed upon Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”) for Best Actor and, in 2011, they only concurred on Best Actress – Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”). The circle’s influence is most keenly felt with when it puts longshot contenders on the derby track – like Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”), who went on to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress of 2000.
The New York Film Critics Circle was first among the precursor prizes to pick winners this year. Tomorrow the National Board of Review pipes in and on Sunday, Dec. 8, we’ll hear from the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers’ Club”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Bruno Delbonnel, “Inside Llewyn Davis”
BEST ANIMATED FILM
“The Wind Rises”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Blue is the Warmest Color”
BEST NON-FICTION FEATURE
“Stories We Tell“
BEST FIRST FEATURE