’12 Years a Slave’ likely to win over both NY and LA film critics

The New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association disagree more often than not – they’ve chosen the same Best Picture only four times in the last 10 years – but this year our predictors think the two groups will come together again to honor “12 Years a Slave.”

The historical drama, which scored a tremendous 97 on MetaCritic, leads our NYFCC predictions with 4/11 odds, including support from all our editors and an overwhelming majority of users and top users.

Gravity” is in second place with 5/1 odds, followed by “Before Midnight” with 25/1 odds. All other contenders are far behind, with “The Wolf of Wall Street” and “August: Osage County” rounding out our predictors’ top five with 100/1 odds.

LAFCA is expected to be a closer race, though the same two films lead: “12 Years” out front with 8/15 odds, and “Gravity” a strong contender with 7/2 odds.

Blue is the Warmest Color” is third in line with 14/1 odds. The Los Angeles critics have a greater affinity for foreign-language films than their East Coast counterparts, having recently awarded “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (2000), “Letters from Iwo Jima” (2006), and “Amour” (2012).

Farther behind are “American Hustle” and “Her,” both with 50/1 odds.

Will “12 Years” sweep the critics’ prizes the way “The Social Network” did in 2010? And if so, will it carry that momentum straight through to the Oscars? Of the last four films NY and LA critics agreed on, only one of them went on to win the top Oscar: “The Hurt Locker” (2009). The other three were nominated but didn’t win: “Sideways” (2004), “Brokeback Mountain” (2005), and “Social Network.”

Predict the NYFCC winner below, and then make sure to visit our prediction center to predict the LAFCA results.

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