‘Argo’ takes the lead in Adapted Screenplay Oscar race after WGA upset

Last Sunday’s WGA Awards threw a wrench into Oscar’s Best Adapted Screenplay race, with “Argo” scribe Chris Terrio defeating presumed frontrunner Tony Kushner (“Lincoln“) and further establishing that film’s status as Best Picture frontrunner. Can Kushner still win, or have his hopes now been dashed?

Argo
Terrio’s screenplay is now ahead in the Oscar race with 17/10 odds, with support from 21 out of 26 experts, eight out of nine editors, and 54% of users.

Before winning the WGA Award, Terrio was awarded by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the Online Film Critics Society, and the USC Scripter Awards. He was also nominated by BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and the Golden Globes.

This is Terrio’s first Oscar nomination.

-ADDPREDICTION:85:11:Click to predict Adapted Screenplay:ADDPREDICTION-

Lincoln
Kushner’s script ranks second with 3/1 odds. Five experts and 32% of users think he will win.

This season, he has won awards from Critics’ Choice, the National Society of Film Critics, the New York Film Critics Circle, and the Chicago Film Critics Association. He was also nominated by BAFTA, the Golden Globes, and the WGA.

This is Kushner’s second Oscar nomination. He was previously nominated in this category for co-writing “Munich,” also for Steven Spielberg.

Silver Linings Playbook
Director David O. Russell also wrote the screenplay for the film and is in third place with 9/2 odds. One editor and 11% of users predict he will win.

Russell has won writing awards from BAFTA and the National Board of Review and was nominated by Critics’ Choice, the Golden Globes, and the WGA. He also contends at the Spirit Awards for his screenplay.

Including his bid for directing “Silver Linings,” this is Russell’s third Oscar nomination and his first for writing.

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Life of Pi
The film was adapted from Yann Martel‘s novel by David Magee, who is in fourth place according to our predictors, with 13/2 odds. Less than 2% of users think he will win.

Magee has been nominated by BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, the USC Scripter Awards, and the WGA. He won the Satellite Award for his script.

This is his second Oscar nomination. He previously earned a bid in this category for “Finding Neverland” (2004).

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Adapted by Lucy Alibar and director Benh Zeitlin from Alibar’s stage play, “Beasts” is in last place with 10/1 odds. Less than 1% of users predict they will win.

Their screenplay has earned nominations from BAFTA, the Chicago Film Critics Association, and the Online Film Critics Society. They were not eligible to compete at the WGA.

This is the first Oscar nomination for Alibar and, including his nomination for directing “Beasts,” the second for Zeitlin.

2 thoughts on “‘Argo’ takes the lead in Adapted Screenplay Oscar race after WGA upset

  1. How sad that “Argo” will defeat the year’s best screenplay (“Lincoln”) in order to justify a Best Picture win. Apparently, the words “Winner of 2 Academy Awards including Best Picture” don’t look very good on the cover of a DVD!

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