Can anyone beat Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor at Oscars?

In a year when history could be made by awarding Best Picture to a film without a director nomination (“Argo”) for only the fourth time in 85 years, less attention has been paid to the potential of Daniel Day-Lewis becoming the first man to win three Best Actor Oscars. Is his win inevitable?

Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln“)
Day-Lewis leads with 11/8 odds and overwhelming support from our predictors. Experts and editors are unanimous that he will win, and a whopping 95% of users agree.

He has already swept most key awards season prizes along the way for playing 16th president Abraham Lincoln, including wins at the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA. He was also honored by the New York Film Critics Circle.

This is his fifth Oscar nomination. He previous won Best Actor for “My Left Foot” (1989) and “There Will Be Blood” (2007).

-ADDPREDICTION:85:5:Click to predict Best Actor:ADDPREDICTION-

Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables“)
Jackman ranks second with 4/1 odds, though none of our experts or editors, and less than 2% of users predict he will win.

He plays bread-stealing fugitive Jean Valjean in the epic adaptation of the long-running stage musical, for which he was nominated for SAG, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice. He won a Golden Globe in the Comedy/Musical category, where he didn’t have to go head-to-head against Day-Lewis.

This is Jackman’s first Oscar nomination.

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Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook“)
Cooper is in third place, getting 11/2 odds with support from less than 2% of users.

For his role as bipolar former teacher Pat Solitano, he was awarded Best Actor by the National Board of Review and received nominations from SAG, the Golden Globes (he lost to Jackman), and Critics’ Choice, where he lost his Best Actor bid to Day-Lewis but won a separate award for Best Actor in a Comedy.

This is Cooper’s first Oscar nomination.

Denzel Washington (“Flight“)
Washington ranks fourth according to our predictors, with 13/2 odds and only support from only six users out of more than 1,400.

He plays an alcoholic airline pilot who saves his passengers during an emergency landing. For his performance he has been nominated at the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics’ Choice, as well as the Chicago Film Critics Assn. and the Online Film Critics Society, but he has not won a major award this season.

This is Washington’s sixth Oscar nomination. He has won two of his previous bids: Best Supporting Actor for “Glory” (1989) and Best Actor for “Training Day” (2001).

Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master“)
Phoenix ranks last with our predictors, who give him 8/1 odds. 1% of users are predicting him to win.

For his role as a heavy-drinking World War II vet taken under the wing of a charismatic cult leader, Phoenix won the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor and received several other nominations and wins from regional critics’ groups. He was also nominated at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTA Awards. though he was snubbed by SAG.

This is the third Oscar nomination for Phoenix, who was previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor for “Gladiator” (2000) and Best Actor for “Walk the Line” (2005).

6 thoughts on “Can anyone beat Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor at Oscars?

  1. Goldderby really needs to sort out how they calculate odds. Is DDL really a 27/20 shot? [If you bet 20 you’ll win 27] In actuality, if you bet 20 with a real bookmaker you’d win less than 1, such is the certainty that DDL win win.

  2. Best performance is still Hugh Jackman. He could have been cast and acted well any of the other four roles. None of the other four could have portrayed JVJ or carried Les Miserables.

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