After that onslaught of nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics’ Choice, let’s take a deep breath and consider what they all mean.
Seventeen lead and supporting players reaped bids with all three of these precursor prizes. How likely are they to also land Oscar nominations?
Turns out, the odds are overwhelmingly in their favor.
In the 18 years since the the Critics Choice kudos came on the scene in 1995, there have been only nine instances when a performer who had contended for all three of these awards did not also earn an Oscar nomination. (Read about that unlucky group here.)
Conversely, 13 Oscar nominations (of the 360 across the four acting categories) went to folks who had not been nominated for any of these prizes first. (Read about that lucky baker’s dozen here.)
So, where are we at this year? Let’s take a closer look at each of the acting races by examining who has run the board so far and who could still pull off a surprise on Oscar nominations morning.
All four of these leading men are in our top five for Oscars. So, who will get that fifth slot?
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street“) sits in sixth on our list; he was snubbed by Critics’ Choice, which has six nominees, in favor of our seventh-ranked Christian Bale (“American Hustle“). While neither of them reaped SAG bids, both contend for Comedy/Musical Actor at the Globes.
This lineup mirrors our top five for Oscars. Can anyone break through and, if so, who is the most vulnerable among this quintet?
Amy Adams (“American Hustle”) did reap a Globe bid over on the comedy/musical side, but was snubbed by SAG. And, even though the Critics’ Choice has six nominees, she was overlooked there in favor of Brie Larson (“Short Term 12”).
Three of these featured fellows make it onto our top five for Oscars. The only vulnerable contender is Bruhl, who features in a film that is less likely to make the Best Picture lineup than the others.
So, who could bump Bruhl at the Oscars?
Bradley Cooper (“American Hustle”), who picked up both Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice bids, is in that fifth slot on our Oscars chart.
James Gandolfini (“Enough Said”) was snubbed by the Globes but earned both SAG and Critic Choice nominations; we have him in eighth place for the Oscars.
Jonah Hill reaped a bid in this category two years ago for “Moneyball” and could play spoiler for his sizeable scene-stealing role in “The Wolf of Wall Street”; he currently sits in seventh place on our list of likely Oscar contenders.
These four all feature on our top five for Oscars.
Octavia Spencer (“Fruitvale Station“) won this award in 2011 for “The Help.” Despite being snubbed by all three of these awards, she remains in sixth place on our Oscar chart. Could she become the 14th performer snubbed by all three precursors to score an Oscar nomination?
Vote below for who you think will make it into the Supporting Actress race at the Oscars using our easy drag-and-drop menu.