Two Oscar experts valiantly hold out for ‘Lincoln’ to win Best Picture

Twenty-three of our 25 Oscarologists predict “Argo” will win Best Picture, but two brave pundits still stand by “Lincoln“: Sasha Stone (Awards Daily – see her predix here) and Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly – see his predix).

Sasha has been a diehard “Lincoln” soldier for eons, but she briefly caved in to the momentum behind “Argo” after it swept the Producers, Screen Actors’ and Directors’ Guilds, then climbed back up on her feet and mustered new courage to resume her fight for “Lincoln.” Noting how rarely a film has managed to win Best Picture without its director being nommed in modern times (just once – that notorious “Driving Miss Daisy” example), she says, “I have to adhere to the stats in the face of confusion – I am just built that way.”

Poor Thom is waffling a bit too. At one point in our podcast chat, he admits that the other 23 Oscarologists may be right, but then he suddenly snaps out of it, rallies behind his choice of “Lincoln” and says, “I find it hard to imagine that when you’re filling out a ballot with 26 categories, the only thing you’re checking off is ‘Argo’ for Best Picture. It’s possible that it could pick up some technical awards. It might pick up adapted screenplay over ‘Lincoln.’ It could get editing. But it’s kind of hard for me to imagine an ‘Argo’ sweep, which is what you tend to get with a Best Picture winner.”

Yes, that’s true, but in our podcast I remind Thom that “Crash” only won three Oscars. Doesn’t matter. For now anyway, he remains undeterred.


See latest Oscar predictions from 25 top Oscarologists

See rankings and racetrack odds generated when experts’ predictions are combined

7 thoughts on “Two Oscar experts valiantly hold out for ‘Lincoln’ to win Best Picture

  1. I’m not surprised at all by Sasha’s pick- she’s been so delusional and misguided by her passion for ‘Lincoln’ this entire awards season, it makes her usually insightful blog unbearable to read for me this year when every other entry is a case for ‘Lincoln’… and I’m someone who liked ‘Lincoln’ more than ‘Argo’.

  2. Yes , she’s a Lincoln groupie who refuses to believe what her very own eyes and ears are telling her …..HOWEVER , she happens to be correct ; Lincoln truly is the best movie this year , but the shallow narcissistic voters have been seduced by ARGO’s siren song of Hollywood riding to the rescue like a latter day John Wayne…it really is ”All about US ‘ ‘

    The final word should go to the conceited Oscar Wilde ‘ ‘ The play was a success , but the audience quite a failure ‘ ‘ Too true Oscar , TOO TRUE !

  3. Poor Sasha, in recent years she’s thrown her weight behind a horse in the race and been disappointed. Two years ago it was The Social Network, and last year it was Viola Davis. At least this year she’ll have the consolation of a Spielberg win.

  4. Sasha’s right, and I’m *NOT* delusional or a Lincoln groupie (it took me awhile to accept DDL’s likely third Best Actor win). Best Picture wins are usually driven by Best Director; when they’re not, they’re driven by acting performances. Argo not only does NOT have a Director nom, but is likely to lose its only acting nom; Alan Arkin is clearly dead last for Supporting Actor. Arkin’s “fake movie” may not be JUST a “fake hit”, but it IS a fake Oscar contender.

  5. I just don’t see how Lincoln can win Director, Lead Actor, and Screenplay and not win Best Picture. I also don’t see how Argo can win without a Directing nomination or only one/two other wins. People can point to anomalies like The Pianist, Driving Miss Daisy, or Crash… but all three of those anomalies have to happen at the same time for Argo to pull it off.

  6. Sasha “stoned” is a delusional blogger who can’t accept that his pony “Lincoln” is being left behind. If you go to her blog, it is so obvious of how he puts Lincoln to a pedestal and the rest of the BP nominees especially Argo to the backburner! And if you say something bad or criticize Lincoln, she tells you not to “dump on her backyard” because it will be deleted and its author banned! She is really something else!

  7. I think Sasha lost her credibility eons ago. Something I leant years ago- if Sasha picks a movie, you can bet your bottom dollar that it won’t win.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

More News from GoldDerby