2 top Oscar experts drop Jennifer Lawrence for Emmanuelle Riva in Best Actress race

Two leading Oscar pundits – Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) and Steve Pond (The Wrap) – just added new drama to the Best Actress race: they ditched Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook“) for Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour“), who recently pulled off an upset at the BAFTA Awards.

Lawrence still retains a sizeable lead, according Gold Derby’s poll of 25 experts. Eighteen pick her to win, giving her 9-to-5 racetrack odds. However, Hammond and Pond join four other notable gurus who are betting on Riva too: Tariq Khan (Fox News), Guy Lodge (HitFix), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). See complete breakdown of Best Actress predictions here.

-ADDPREDICTION:85:6:Click to predict Best Actress Oscar:ADDPREDICTION-

The BAFTA Award – Britain’s equivalent to the Oscar – often foretells upsets about to occur in Hollywood. For example, it correctly foretold victories by Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”) last year and Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”) in 2007 when most Oscar pundits were betting on Viola Davis (“The Help”) and Julie Christie (“Away from Her”).

However, Lawrence won two key U.S. precursor prizes that often tattle on Oscar – the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Award.

SAG champ Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”) still retains a slight edge to win Best Supporting Actor with the backing of 11 experts, who give him 23-to-10 odds. But Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”) is pulling up fast with the support of 10 seers. Four experts pick Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”). See how the pundits rank all nominees in that category according to likelihood of winning.

“Argo” is favored to win Best Picture by 24 of the 25 Oscarologists polled. Only Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly) is holding out for “Lincoln.” Up until today, he was joined by Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), but, frustrated by the state of the derby, she withdrew from further punditry this season. She Tweeted, “Just took some of the pressure off and am not going to be a @goldderby ‘expert’ this year. But keep following them they’ll be righter than I.”

RELATED: Can anyone beat Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress?

A new Oscarologist just joined the Gold Derby gang – Ramin Setoodeh (Newsweek Daily Beast), who is making rather mainstream predictions (“Argo,” Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones, Anne Hathaway) except for the Best Director race, which he’s calling for David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”). Three Gold Derby peers agree.

Five experts back Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) for the helmer’s gold. One opts for Michael Haneke (“Amour”). All 15 others believe Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”) will prevail. See full breakdown here.

34 thoughts on “2 top Oscar experts drop Jennifer Lawrence for Emmanuelle Riva in Best Actress race

  1. Is this a joke? Naomi Watts is winning Best Actress. The Academy isn’t going to waste an Oscar on Ms. Riva. The loss in viewers and market share would significant. The recent moves by the AMPAS are to prevent that from happening further.

  2. Going back 15 years best actress for the Oscars and the Baftas diverged six times, most recently in 2009. And usually there is a very strong front runner. The SAG is more predictive, but this year was always an outlier because of Lawrence’s age. (She would become the second youngest winner ever, and Matlin wasn’t a typical case). We will see if the Academy is desperate to ignore the audience, ignore youth (a demographic where it is getting clobbered) and vote for a performance no one saw or will see from an actress last relevant during the French New Wave. Critics groups split the vote all year. Lawrence and Riva tied in LA. Lawrence out balloted her in NY. Then they each won their share. Of course moviegoers actually saw Lawrence’s performance and know who she is (plus she is young and very popular), which the Academy apparently doesn’t like as it continues its self-created slide into irrelevancy. Audiences will not watch an awards show that shows such contempt for its opinion, and the ratings reflect that despite steps the Academy has taken like expanded the BP category. (It knows it has a problem). The Oscars don’t have to be the People’s Choice awards, but they were not intended to be the anti-People’s Choice awards either. That films or performances are actually seen, have actual appeal and had an actual impact with moviegoers was never intended to be ignored. But the Academy cannot get its act together and its members are stuck in the past. So given Lawrence’s youth, Riva’s appeal to the Academy’s old-fogeyism and fear of youth, as well as its self-destructive contempt for the audience that merely foots the bill for the whole affair, Riva definitely has a shot. Shouldn’t but this is the Academy we are talking about.

  3. Riva was always favored to win at BAFTA. Far from an upset. But ok, more people choosing to overthink a race and get it wrong. Funny how the experts aren’t jumping on SLP to win Adapted Screenplay after it upset Argo and Lincoln there at BAFTA.

  4. The pundits picking Riva are those who, it seems to me, have the most knowledge of people inside the Academy. They are obviously hearing lots of love for the French woman.

    I was hoping Chastain would win, but her chances seem to have dimmed over the last few weeks.

  5. @PJ: The reason why SLP hasn’t gained in Adapted Screenplay is that Argo won the USC Scripter Award in the weekend as the BAFTA and the verdict is still out on the WGA.

  6. I don’t know where this fuss is coming from. Riva won only European awards, the only American she was mentioned she tied with Lawrence. She wasn’t nominated for Critics, SAG and Globes. She was expected to win BAFTA for a long time, it wasn’t a surprise. Her last remarkable job was 50 years ago and wasn’t recognized outside Europe. I know she has a great career and is a fine actress but her role in Amour wasn’t a challenge, she is the same age as her character and seems to be struggling with these problems herself. Her elderly is appealing enough to the movie’s credibility. I see this as a couple of critics trying to show us they have power and influence to change the game, and guess what? They have. We don’t even need to wait next year to say it, because next month we all be like “Emmanuelle Who?”

  7. Lawrence is 22 and this is her second nomination, she is the most versatile actress of her generation, and she happens to be very popular and charismatic. Her job is remarkable, her acting is very raw and appealing, she has everything to be the next big thing, but obviously the Academy will choose to ignore this.

  8. The Academy should vote for the best performances, not for the most seen performances. Maybe their Best Picture lineup should have been The Avengers, Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit and Skyfall? The Academy is supposed to reward the best achievements in film. The people who’ve seen Riva’s performance (and ‘Amour’ is nominated for 5 Oscars, won 2 BAFTAs, a Golden Globe, 3 National Society of Film Critics Awards, 2 Los Angeles Film Critics Association awards, 1 New York Film Critics Circle Award, 4 European Film Awards and is also nominated for 10 Cesars) know that when it comes to quality, this is Riva’s Oscar to lose. And come on. The Academy is hardly high-brow. They usually make some middle-brow choices, like ‘Crash’ winning over Brokeback Mountain, Paltrow, Bullock and Hunt winning over Blanchett, Streep and Dench. Now that Riva’s performance has a lot of momentum and people have seen/are seeing her film, it’s logical that she is fighting for the Oscar. It’s a painfully realistic performance and a heartbreaking one.

  9. Dear Tom or whoever is the moderator/ owner of this site. Please don’t give anymore space or attention to that laughable fence-sitting hack Sasha Stone! Just like what Adrian Young said here, her site says The Trick is Not Minding but boy that she mind a LOT! and her film “essays” are so laughable and over-reaching, trying to connecting films to bigger life issues and philosophical musings as if the makers of the film set out to do that! she always bashes the academy for not getting it right but when they get it right, in her opinion, she says it’s just an exception or a fluke. she’s one old bitter woman who can’t get past the fact that her Oscar ponies didn’t win – Charlie Wilson’s War, The Social Network, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo…. and now Lincoln. What a joke!

  10. As much as I like the passion from Sasha and her hilarious podcast with Tom the other day, Sasha is too much to hand these days after he “golden boy” Lincoln is falling off the wards train. I used to love Awards Daily but since last year I think the site becomes such a bitter land or something if Sasha’s golden boy was not winning. Look at the Awards Daily right now, I realize how much I appreciate the objection and fairness from Gold Derby. Everyone has the right to be emotional and passionate for what they love but remember your love is not necessary everyone else’s love. So at least be supportive.

  11. @John-The critics have been divided. And remember that Lawrence is in a much less critic friendly type of film, so the fact that she is able to win critic’s awards against that disability is significant. There is no objective way to claim that Riva was better than Lawrence, a claim that is ultimately subjective. At that point you have to look at the big picture, and that favors Lawrence overwhelmingly. Movies are a public art form. That audiences see a film/performance and like a film/performance is absolutely a legitimate factor as is the opposite. Oscars are not critics awards and are not supposed to be. They are awards that should incorporate quality and relevance and impact and timeliness and popularity. To say that doesn’t mean that your self-serving caricature applies. No one says throw quality away (and again nothing was clear cut this year by any measure), only that quality is just part of the equation. Did Portman have the best performance in 2010? Who knows? But did she have the best performance in the film that had the widest appeal? Absolutely. Which is why she was a great choice.

  12. Incidentally this is not a quality vs. popularity debate. Lawrence had enough support from critic’s groups that she has a strong argument that she delivered the “better” performance. Rather its a case where the quality argument is a wash to the point that other factors also have to be considered. Really the two nominees that should be in contention are Lawrence and Chastain. They are the ones with all the factors lining up and whose winning would not be a complete kiss off to the audience. The Oscars are a balancing act. If one candidate is the head and shoulder’s critical favorite (didn’t happen this year), that can be considered. If a candidate actually achieved broad base appeal that is a factor too. And so on. But the academy should not vote with its head buried in the sand. If that’s what people want then you get what you wish for in more ways than one. Movies are art but also entertainment meant to entice an audience, and their response is a major factor and better be.

  13. Obviously quality is subjective, but why object to voting for Riva when it’s clear that Lawrence has EVERY traditional advantage in her favor. (She’s young, charming, in a popular movie, and has Harvey behind her.) Many people love her performance and don’t think that movies that makes less than $10 million should be ineligible for big awards.

  14. Too bad Sasha went home and took the ball with her. You need somebody with more Oscar credentials than I to tell you “I told you so” when (NOT if) Argo fails to win Best Picture. I still think it’s Lincoln, but I’m not a fanboy by any stretch; it wins because (a) the Academy will NOT let Argo win and (b) Spielberg & DDL can’t lose.

  15. Riva won BAFTA because the British have loved her since Hiroshima Mon Amour; Lawrence is too far ahead to lose. The one possible variation from SAG is Supporting Actor, where Jones has serious competition from De Niro and possibly Waltz.

  16. Silver Linings Playbook took a huge hit with the Argo surge. Unlike Best Picture nominees Argo, Lincoln, Les Miserables, Life of Pi and Amour, SLP has NOT secured a win in any category. Lawrence is the film’s best chance at a win and she’s in a precarious position to lose to someone like Riva who is moving up fast.

  17. BAFTA was the first head-to-head between Lawrence and Riva, who was either not eligible or not otherwise nominated because the film wasn’t as widely seen or spoken of by that point.

    Riva’s BAFTA win should be very telling. Plus, she doesn’t seem to be actively campaigning — which should count for something with those who are sick of the ridicularity of Oscar campaigning.

  18. @terrence-Actually the first head to head competition was the Australian awards which Lawrence won. And Lawrence has won critics awards against her.

  19. The snobs that have been bleeding the life out of the Oscars have been looking for anyone to derail Lawrence for a while. They decided that Chastain is unlikely, so now they want to create the false impression of a Riva “surge” despite the fact that the Bafta was always in her favor. It has more to do with opposing Lawrence for whatever self-defeating reason than in supporting the others.

  20. WOW!!! How much is Harvey paying this people to make these frivolous comments on this site? The first Jennifer Lawrence stan, MERYL, is saying the Academy should vote for her girl because, basically, “she is young and everyone saw – the terrible, btw – Silver Linings Playbook” and that “no one saw Amour”. Girl, please. They are already voting for the popular choices in Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress (Lincoln, Django and Les Mis made a sh*tload of money). Amour is doing very well with its target audience and is expanding and gaining more momentum and money. This is the Palm D’or winner and the movie most critics saw as the best of the year. The most broad and important critics group in America named Amour and Emmanuelle Riva respectively the Best Film and Best Actress of 2012. REAL moviegoers, REAL cinephiles, have seen Amour and are rooting for the best performance, which is Riva’s! If the Academy honors Riva, this will be one of the best things they have EVER done. Also, wtf with this “ignore youth” talk. They are supposed to vote for BEST IN CINEMA. Lawrence did not give the best performance by a leading actress. In fact, she may be the worst of her category. I wish her the best and I wish that she develops her skills in the future, but her role in SLP was the work of lazy craft and lots of hysteria. Great actresses should know better.

  21. CAMILA: first of all, Riva definitely was nominated for the Critics Choice! You can look it up. You are displaying a lot of ignorance by saying that her last important film was 50 years ago. You should look her curriculum on IMDB. Ever heard of Blue?? WTF is “she is the same age as her character and seems to be struggling with these problems herself” supposed to mean? “She is old therefore ill and it’s easy to play that character”? That’s too much prejudice for one sentence. She’s a healthy 85 year old woman who can nail every role she’s given. She is not dying. If I follow your reasoning, I’m gonna saying Lawrence’s character was an even easier role, since “she young and most Hollywood stars are a little crazy”. That’s not how it works. No one is gonna say “Emmanuelle Who” because the movie community, true cinephiles, have known who she is for longer that you and I have been alive. Her name will always be known. Quite frankly, the career she has is worth much more than an Oscar, but to me, it would mean a lot to see the Academy pay their dues to one of the best actresses in world cinema history. LOL at this about Lawrence: “she is the most versatile actress of her generation”. Again: how much is Harvey paying you to say these things? Or maybe you are Harvey himself? Lawrence has just started and hasn’t really had more than one or two challenging roles (I don’t think her role in SLP, which was designed to make her win awards, is one of them; her role in Winter’s Bone, maybe). For someone to be “the best of their generation”, they need to really show they have what it takes. Kate Winslet had to act her butt off for decades so that now we can look back and say “Yeah, she’s the best of her generation”.

  22. JAY: “don’t think that movies that makes less than $10 million should be ineligible for big awards” Huh??? Are they awarding “the best” or “the most popular among those who made a lot of money”??? Amour will certainly be among the most critics’ top 10 movies of this decade and I’m sure SLP will not be in any of them. Amour will be a movie that people will always look back and say “what a masterpiece, what great acting!”. It’s making a lot of money considering how it still hasn’t expanded much and what its target audience is (Which is a shame, since most movie lovers should be going out and seeing this movie).

  23. “Riva won BAFTA because the British have loved her since Hiroshima Mon Amour” LOL, just… STOP! She won because she gave the best performance, period. They probably don’t even remember that Alain Resnais’ masterpiece, like most Americans. Let’s stop this “she won because she’s European”. This is a BRITISH award. You have to be really ignorant to state that the British would favor a French actress. Everyone knows how much the French and the British hate each other. It’s MUCH easier for the British to award an American – they love the US and dream of being like America! Which is why for them to give Riva the award was a big deal – it means, despite all, they saw the performance and recognized it for what it is: THE BEST.

  24. Jefferson: wtf is the Australian awards?? I have never heard of them. Now, I’ve heard of the BAFTAs for my entire lifetime. They are respectable worldwide and Riva won there. Lawrence indeed won a few critics awards (Especially the ones where members voted for her hoping she would show up for their celebration dinner, something Riva would never do given her age… they wanna see the HOT GIRL eye to eye more than they care about awarding the best), BUT the one really important critics group in the US gave their award to Riva – the National Board of Review! The NBR is made up of critics from all the critics groups. THAT SAYS A LOT.

  25. DDL: the only snobs in the Best Actress discussion going on in this site are the Jennifer Lawrence stans. They ignore great acting in favor of their hot young idol. It’s not true that Riva was expected to win the BAFTAs. Yes, some pundits had predicted her here on Goldderby, but the British who bet MONEY (just check the betting houses’ websites) on the BAFTA winners had her in #3. And yet she won.

  26. Do you guys remember the year we all thought the Oscars were going to give an award to Kate Hudson for her role in Almost Famous? She was the hot young actress back then too (in fact, she gave a better performance than Lawrence and in a better film than SLP). Now, which other great performance has she given since then? I can’t remember. She has become someone who only does rom-coms. The Academy should wait a few more years to see what Lawrence is really capable of before giving her the golden guy. I hope for once they ignore their history of only awarding young hot beauty queens.

  27. Let us hope that Academy voters will not make the mistake they made in 1998 by awarding the Best Actress Oscar to Gwyneth Fernanda Montenegro in “Shakespeare in Love” instead of to the incomparably moving performance of Fernanda Montenegro in the grimly realistic “Central Station” just because the latter was not young and hot and the film a foreign-language one. May Ms. Riva prevail. The Academy could show itself to be less parochial as well.

  28. Denny and Gustavo, I hate to break it to you, but Lawrence is winning Best Actress for one simple reason…she gave the best performance of the five, which I was fortunate enough to see.

  29. @Gustavo-You have to be the most hopeless stan I have ever seen. The critics awards were split, and that was so despite Lawrence being in a much less critic friendly format. They did tie in LA. Lawrence did out ballot her in NY. and they both won quite a few. (SLP wasn’t at Cannes). There is simply no way to claim that Riva was “better”. It’s rather a highly debatable point. What isn’t debatable is everything else. You have no answer so you ignore it. Good plan. And real cinephiles? Yes, that should be the goal of the Academy, to satisfy a handful of “real cinephiles” while the rest of the audience goes to hell. Heck of a plan. LOL.

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