Oscars Experts’ Predictions: ‘Argo’ and Jennifer Lawrence zoom ahead after SAG Awards

Call it Oscar “Argo”-nautics. Propelled by dramatic victories at the Producers’ and Screen Actors’ Guilds, “Argo” just zoomed far ahead of “Lincoln” in the race for Best Picture, according to the predictions of 25 top Oscarologists polled by Gold Derby.

Just a few days ago, 13 experts backed “Lincoln,” 11 picked “Argo” and one held out hope for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Now the score stands: 22 for “Argo” and three stalwarts for “Lincoln.” “Argo” reaps 12-to-5 odds; “Lincoln” snags 11-to-2. See all category odds here.

Last week Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook“) held just a narrow edge over Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty“) in the Best Actress contest. Now she’s backed by 20 pundits, who give her 9-to-5 odds. Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”) is in second place with 3 votes and 4-to-1 odds, followed by Chastain chosen by two experts giving her 10-to-3 odds.

Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln“) was ahead for Best Supporting Actor by only a slim margin recently, but he’s pulled far ahead after prevailing at SAG. Twenty Oscarologists pick him to win (8 to 5 odds), compared to four for Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook“) and one for Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained“).

All 25 gurus choose Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”) for Best Actor (6/5) and Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”) is the runaway pick of 24 pundits for Best Supporting Actress (11/8).

See the experts’ latest predictions – click here.

6 thoughts on “Oscars Experts’ Predictions: ‘Argo’ and Jennifer Lawrence zoom ahead after SAG Awards

  1. I was thinking Argo would win best pic at the Oscars & Lincoln was weak, but after really thinking about it last night, I came away thinking this: 1st, while they can’t really block/consensus vote, I do think they think, what will be the important picture years from now, what will be remembered and respected the most. They like tradition and ‘properness’. Even this Argo would be remembered well, if you pit it against a film like Lincoln, Lincoln will win out with its epic grandeur and top performances, And I believe it will be a fairly good sweep as well: Day Lewis actor, Jones for supp actor, Spielberg will win director, (I had thought Lee Li would win the Oscar but Ive changed my thinking) screenplay, editing and maybe a few tech awards.
    2. I don’t believe they will like being told they were wrong. By leaving out Affleck for director, perhaps these other award orgs. have rallied behind him and I dont think that will matter to the Oscar voters, I believe they will be set in their minds that Affleck wasn’t nominated and it was the right thing and all this Holloywood support for him I think might at the end of the day hurt Affleck. I love Mr O’Neil and agree with him probably 90% of the time, but i dont think they believe they will own Affleck best pic since he was snubbed for directing just as I dont think they would ever say voting Crash as best pic was wrong, even though, IMO, its one of the worst films Ive ever seen, I dont believe they think they made a mistake and owe Brokeback or Ang Lee anything. Its the kinda thing where you criticize me, Im juust going to double down.
    As for Actress, I think Chastain was leading but with Lawrence’s win at SAG, the Academy support for SLP in general, plus Lawrence gave a very good speech, bringing up the importance of the film for mentally ill people and ORussels son, extra points there. I personally was thinking Reva would win but I changed it to Lawrence.
    thats just my unqualified opinions 🙂

  2. Some people have an inflated impression about Lincoln. Apart from the performance of DDL who’s always great it’s as important as The King’s Speech. I’d even say that TKS has the upper hand of being funny. Spielberg doesn’t make challenging films. If he did then Lincoln would be far closer to the real one- a much more racist individual than the film would have you believe- and it would’ve made the film more complex.

    It’s hilarious how people critisise Hooper for TKS while embracing Lincoln as something “important”. Perhaps one have to be american to get there.

    The Academy has already made a fool out of its self by leaving out Affleck for directing. By naming Lincoln best picture the narrative will be that Lincoln, a film that has lost and lost, must be awarded somehow because not awarding it would embarass both Spielberg and Bill Clinton.

  3. Lincoln is a movie that will be watched decades from now , while ARGO will be largely forgotten in 2 years time …..Lincoln is a movie that will educate and inform folks about a pivotal moment in US history ; it resurrects the dead and speaks wisdom to the living …it is a thinking persons movie

    Argo is a frivolous ”escape caper ” that is predictable light entertainment ; a political thriller that fails to even thrill……if the voters choose this movie over the magnificent Lincoln it will confirm the worst steriotypes about Hollywood

  4. Re the importance of “Argo” v. Lincoln. While Lincoln deals with more momentous events, it deals with them dishonestly. The raw racism of some Democrats is on display, but not Lincoln’s own. And the role of the abolition movement in bringing down slavery is marginalized in favor of The Great Man Theory of history, (Also miffed that Tony Kushner–of all people–did not integrate Lincoln’s bisexuality into the film.)

    “Argo” works as a thriller, but it also dignifies the heroic contributions of average and unlikely people. Ben Affleck beautifully underplays the lead, subverting the tradition of flashy action flick heroes. In short, “Argo” achieves REALNESS, which ought to be the goal of every film.

    Finally, count me as one who never understood the appeal of “Silver Linings Playbook”–a light comedy about mental illness? I never believed that Bradley Cooper had just come out of a nut house. And didn’t find it funny, just silly.

  5. While most years the Globes have been a solid guide to what the Oscars would do there was, I think a wild card element this year with two of the major “Oscar Bait” films being noticeably directed at least inconsistently (LINCOLN) if not downright poorly (LES MISERABLES – rightfully un-nominated for Direction even though that probably unfairly hurt the film’s Best Picture chances) and the excellent Direction of ARGO being passed over for an Oscar nomination. The Globes may have bent over backwards to recognize Ben Affleck’s achievement here (although his unhelpful underacting didn’t need the recognition). That “special pleading” however, may not affect Oscar voters as much as a genuine groundswell for a film in other years might. ARGO remains a relatively well done but minor film (for it’s excellent opening and closing moments I intend to use it in a class on “20th Century History on Film”) but LINCOLN remains – despite a weak opening sequence and nitpickers who wanted even more from it – a major work which will stand the test of time. It should remain the actual favorite for Best Picture, Best Actor and assuming the overwhelming work from Ang Lee doesn’t prevail for LIFE OF PI, probably Best Direction as well. Almost everyone agrees that Ann Hathaway has Best Supporting Actress licked up for LES MISERABLES for her very nice performance, but don’t be surprised if Sally Fields (an actress I have never before appreciated) doesn’t pull off an unexpected win for her once in a lifetime achievement of making Mary Todd Lincoln not only understandable but sympathetic!

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