‘Lincoln’ predicted to win Writers Guild Award for Adapted Screenplay over ‘Argo’

At Sunday’s Writers Guild of America Awards, Tony Kushner is predicted to win Best Adapted Screenplay for “Lincoln.” 

He has the backing of five experts, three editors and about 55% of users. That translates into leading odds of 9/5

In second place is Chris Terrio for “Argo.” He has the support of one expert, two editors and about one-third of users. That gives him odds of 12/5. 

In third is director David O. Russell for his adaption of the novel “Silver Linings Playbook.” About 10% of our users predict this BAFTA champ to prevail here. 

The other two contenders — David Magee (“Life of Pi“) and Stephen Chbosky (“Perks of Being a Wallflower“) — have only smatterings of votes from our users. 

-ADDPREDICTION:90:564:Click to predict WGA Adapted Screenplay:ADDPREDICTION-

The first four of these WGA nominees also contend at the Oscars for Adapted Screenplay. Chboksy was bumped by Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar for the WGA ineligible script for “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”  

While Kushner holds a comfortable lead at the WGAs, he and Terrio are in a close race at the Oscars. Terrio, who just bested him for Scripter, is ahead among our experts. A win for “Lincoln” on Sunday would come at just the right time as Oscar ballots are due by Tuesday afternoon. 

RELATED: ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ predicted to win WGA Original Screenplay

Last year, one of the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar contenders — “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” — was ineligible with the WGA. After winning the WGA, Alexander Payne claimed his third Adapted Screenplay Oscar for “The Descendants,” along with collaborators Nax Faxon and Jim Rash

In 2010, Aaron Sorkin won Best Adapted Screenplay at both kudos for “The Social Network.” He edged out the adapters of “127 Hours” and “True Grit” for both awards. However, two of his Oscar rivals — “Toy Story 3” and “Winter’s Bone” — were ineligible to contend at the WGAs. 

And in 2009, three of the Best Adapted Screenplay contenders — “District 9,” “An Education” and “In the Loop” — were left out of the running by the WGA. That roster was rounded out by eventual champ “Precious” and WGA winner “Up in the Air.

While 282 films were eligible for Best Picture at the Oscars, only 68 of these had original scripts that could vie for WGA recognition. Winners will be revealed in joint ceremonies at the Marriott in Los Angeles and B.B. Kings in New York.  

WGA NOMINEES: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“Lincoln” by Tony Kushner based on book “Team of Rivals” by Doris Kearns Goodwin.
Kushner has a previous WGA win for the TV miniseries “Angels in America.”

Argo” by Chris Terrio, based on the book “The Master of Disguise” by Tony Mendez and the Wired magazine article “The Great Escape” by Joshuah Berman.  
This is his first WGA nomination. 

Life of Pi” by David Magee based on the novel by Yann Martel
This is his first WGA nomination. 

Silver Linings Playbook” by David O. Russell based on the novel by Matthew Quick
He has one previous WGA nomination. 

Perks of Being a Wallflower” by Stephen Chbosky, based on his novel.
This is his first WGA nomination.

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