Two of the five Oscar nominees for Best Editing are predicted to prevail in their respective races at Friday’s American Cinema Editors Awards on Friday. Oscar frontrunner “Gravity” is favored to take the drama prize while “American Hustle” is expected to take the comedy/musical trophy.
Our six Experts, eight Editors, 21 of the Top 24 Users and more than 90% of All Users are backing the bid by “Gravity.” That support gives it overwhelming odds of 1/10. The other two Oscar nominees in this race — “12 Years a Slave” and “Captain Phillips” — each have the backing of one of the Top 24 and a few of the Users which translates into odds of 25/1. Rounding out the race are “Her” and “Saving Mr. Banks” which have odds of 50/1 and 100/1 respectively.
“American Hustle” does not enjoy as substantial a lead. It has the support of three Experts, three Editors, 20 of the Top 24 and three-quarters of All Users which equals odds of 4/7. But “The Wolf of Wall Street” could play spoiler according to three Experts, two Editors, 4 of the Top 24 and 25% of All Users which is good enough for odds of 21/10. “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Nebraska” are at 50/1 while “August: Osage County” is at 100/1.
“Frozen” is far ahead in the animated race with all but a handful of Users backing its bid. That gives it odds of 1/20 versus 33/1 for “Despicable Me 2” and 50/1 for “Monsters University.”
The documentary cutting prize is predicted to go to “20 Feet From Stardom” (2/13) over “Blackfish” (8/1) and “Tim’s Vermeer” (50/1).
The winner of the Golden Eddie for either drama or comedy/musical is one of the best indicators of which film wins the Best Picture Oscar. Since 1990, the film that came up with an ACE went on to take the top prize at the Academy Awards 17 times.
In four of the six years when the ACE barometer was wrong, the Eddie champ was at least a contender for Best Picture. That includes 2010 when the team that cut critics’ darling “The Social Network” (Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter) won over the Eddies and claimed the editing Oscar as well but saw their film fall to “The King’s Speech” for the Best Picture prize.
In 2007, neither of the Eddie winners — “The Bourne Ultimatum” nor “Sweeney Todd” — made the cut for Best Picture at the Oscars and in 1999 the same fate befell “The Matrix” and “Being John Malkovich.”
Though ACE has a good track record as a Best Picture predictor and a great one for forecasting who will win the Editing Oscar (19 out of 23 years), it is surprising that it is not all knowing when it comes to the Editing Oscar nominations. Since 1992, when the Eddies went to five nominees from three, 96 of the 110 Oscar nominees for Editing had first reaped a Golden Eddie nod.
This year, it went four for five missing out on the Oscar bid by “Dallas Buyers Club.” Both last year and in 2011, five of the Eddie nominees comprised the Oscar slate. In 2010, four Eddie nominees contended at the Oscars (“127 Hours” got the fifth slot) while in 2009, only three of five ACE drama nominees — “Avatar,” “District 9” and “The Hurt Locker” — reaped Oscar bids with “Inglorious Basterds” and “Precious” added to the mix.
Although that track record appears impressive enough, ACE doubled its chances of getting it right when it split Dramas and Comedy/Musicals into separate kudos in 1999.
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