Blake Shelton and Kacey Musgraves have recently faced off at two prestigious music events and came away with a split decision: Shelton won Album of the Year at the CMAs for “Based on a True Story,” but in their Grammys rematch Musgraves won Best Country Album for “Same Trailer Different Park,” beating not only Shelton but Album of the Year contender Taylor Swift (“Red“).
Who will break the tie when both albums face off again at the ACM Awards?
It’ll be Shelton according to our predictions, which give him 2/3 odds on our racetrack. But even though almost all editors are picking him, our users are closely split between him and Musgraves, who is right on his heels with 21/10 odds.
The ACMs have loved women in the Album of the Year category in recent years, with solo female artists winning five of the last seven titles. A woman, Hillary Scott, is also one of the lead singers of Lady Antebellum, the one group that won the prize during that period (“Need You Now,” 2010).
“Same Trailer Different Park” is also the kind of critically acclaimed album that the ACMs often favor, like Eric Church‘s “Chief” last year and, most notably, Miranda Lambert‘s lauded debut “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” in 2007, which had reviews in the same league as Musgraves; Lambert was 25 when she won that award, the same age Musgraves is now.
Lambert won Album of the Year again for “Revolution” (2009) and “Four the Record” (2011), but husband Shelton has yet to win his first. “Based on a True Story” is his first nomination in the category.
If anyone plays spoiler, it’ll likely be Luke Bryan, last year’s Entertainer of the Year winner. “Crash My Party” is his second straight nomination in the category, following last year’s “Tailgates and Tanlines.” He ranks third in our predictions with 20/1 odds.
Will Shelton or Musgraves win Album of the Year, or are we underestimating one of their competitors? Make your predictions below: