‘American Idol’ finale: 4 rockin’ reasons why Caleb Johnson will beat Jena Irene

When it comes to final two singers Caleb Johnson and Jena Irene, this could be the closest “American Idol” finale showdown since Kelly Clarkson vs. Justin Guarini way back in Season 1.

Gold Derby’s exclusive oddds, generated by your predictions, certainly think so as the final two have been flip-flopping for weeks at the top of our leaderboards. But I think Caleb will take the easy win here. Scroll down to see my Top 4 reasons for predicting the rock star’s victory.

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The chart on the left shows the current odds for who will win Season 13, with Jena in the lead (4 to 11 odds) and Caleb far behind (14 to 5 odds).

But if you ask me, our oddsmakers are dead wrong. Here’s why:

1. Caleb was never in the bottom three
Eight of the past 12 champs wound up winning their season of “American Idol” without ever being in the dreaded bottom three or two. (Read our analysis here.) Caleb never appeared in the bottom, which gives him the statistical advantage over Jena, who did show up there once back in Top 12 Week.

2. “Idol” voters favor guys over girls
It’s no secret that the vast majority of “American Idol” voters are pre-teen girls who rack up their parents’ phone bills every year as they vote for whichever finalist they find the cutest. In fact, there’s only been one female winner in the past seven years: Season 12’s Candice Glover. But in the case of Candice’s victory over Kree Harrison, it should be noted that there wasn’t a man in the finale for girls to rally around. Food for thought: If Candice faced off against a guy in the finals last year, would she still have won?

‘American Idol’ poll: Can beauty (Jena Irene) crush that beast (Caleb Johnson)?

3. Caleb is older
Looking over the first 12 years of “American Idol,” the majority of winners were older than the runner-ups they were competing against, including the past three champions in a row: Season 12’s Candice (age 23) over Kree (age 22), Season 11’s Phillip Phillips (age 21) over Jessica Sanchez (age 16) and Season 10’s Scotty McCreery (age 17) over Lauren Alaina (age 16). If voters like their winners to be more mature, then 23-year-old Caleb will prevail over 17-year-old Jena.

4. Caleb melted Jennifer Lopez
Caleb’s version of “Dazed and Confused” from Top 3 Week made judge Jennifer Lopez dance so provocatively, the poor Fox censors probably worried about losing their jobs. If his performances are having the same reactions to voters in their homes, there’s no question as to who will win the show. Check out J. Lo’s sultry hip moves to Caleb’s rockin’ performance here:

‘American Idol’ predictions: Jena Irene will be sixth woman to win

Will it be Caleb or Jena? To cast your votes for who will win Season 13, simply scroll down to the TV Derby Predictions menu at the bottom of this post. The winner of our “American Idol” contest will earn a $100 Amazon gift card and two tickets to a live taping of one of next season’s episodes.

The two-night “American Idol” finale airs live on Fox Tuesday, May 20 and Wednesday, May 21.

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Below, watch Gold Derby’s interview with recent cast-off Alex Preston in which he admits he didn’t think he would make it to the Top 3.

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