Poll: Does BAFTA win = Oscar for Jennifer Lawrence?

On the eve of the BAFTA Awards, Jennifer Lawrence (“American Hustle“) seemed doomed at the Oscars. Twenty-five of our 26 pundits pegged Lupita Nyongo (“12 Years a Slave“) to nab the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress, but now – wow – Lawrence just pulled off a spectacular upset in the same category at Britain’s Oscars..

What does that mean for the Oscar race? Over the past 10 years, every Academy Award winner who was also nominated at BAFTA won on Oscar night. Overlap: that’s 8 victors. The two exceptions: Helena Bonham Carter (“The King’s Speech”) won BAFTA in 2010 when Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”) wasn’t on the list and Thandie Newton (“Crash”) prevailed in 2005 when Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardner”) wasn’t in the category (she was nominated in lead).

RELATED: ‘Gravity’ wins 6  BAFTAs, ’12 Years a Slave’ takes 2

But, wait … let’s not forget that Lupita won the SAG Award, which also has a high agreement rate with Oscar. Over the past 10 years there were only two exceptions. In 2007, Ruby Dee (“American Gangster”) beat eventual Oscar champ Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”) and Kate Winslet trounced Oscar’s Best Supporting Actress Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”). But Winslet won SAG for “The Reader,” which was the same film that earned her an Oscar in the lead race, so maybe that counts as agreement?

RELATED: Complete list of BAFTA winners

Winslet also bagged the Golden Globe in supporting for “The Reader,” which causes problems making comparisions to Oscar, too. It was one of three times that the Globe champ didn’t align exactly with the academy’s choice for supporting actress over the past 10 years. The other two exceptions: In 2007, Cate Blanchett (“I’m Not There”) beat Tilda Swinton and, in 2004, Natalie Portman (“Closer”) triumphed over Blanchett (“The Aviator”). This year the Globe went to Jennifer Lawrence.

Are you confused yet? What’s next?

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RELATED: Will Oscars love affair with BAFTAs continue this year?

26 thoughts on “Poll: Does BAFTA win = Oscar for Jennifer Lawrence?

  1. People need to remember two factors that might have gone into Lawrence’s win today. First, she wasn’t reapeating a win at the BAFTA due to losing Best Actress to Riva last year. Second, it is possible that votes for Lupita were split given that she was competing in two categories.

  2. I want madly Jennifer Lawrence to win the Oscar. Not only she’s the best actress of her generation, but also one of the greatest actresses of all time. Her performance in “American Hustle” was simply spectacular, the kind of performance that puts the screen on fire. It was an unbelievable tour-de-force, totally Oscar-worthy and completely unforgettable. Lupita Nyong’o is astonishing in “12 years a slave”, there’s no doubt about that. Yet I’d like so much Jennifer to win, because she’s the only actor or actress absolutely worthy of being the youngest two-time Oscar winner ever and also her performance deserves undeniably an Oscar win. Please, Oscars, make it happen. Give it her second Oscar! She totally deserves it!

  3. @Michael, Lupita was only nominated in one category. The second category is voted by the public and has not much to do with the Academy.

  4. Given how so many of the winners in the BAFTAs this year were anomalies, I would say Jennifer’s win is simply another one of those and gives no indication that she’ll win over Lupita at the Oscars (and I’m actually a fan of Jennifer and indifferent to Lupita).

  5. I think we can chalk up Jennifer Lawrence’s win to the Brits having a greater appreciation for David O Russell movies (he won Screenplay BAFTA two years in a row, after all) – that and Jennifer Lawrence missing out last year. I’m sure they wanted to reward her for a ‘fine’ performance.

    I still think Lupita has the edge.

  6. rachel weisz wasn’t “snubbed by the brits,” that phrase is misleading. She was nominated in the lead actress category at BAFTA for The Constant Gardener, instead of in supporting. Some might argue that the lead category is where she should have been in the first place, and that is why she may have had an advantage over the other nominees in the supporting category at all the other awards circuits.

    btw that was a great year for the supporting actress category at the oscars, great performances from Michelle Williams, Amy Adams, Frances McDormand and Catherine keener.

  7. Jennifer Lawrence does not deserve the Oscar this year. She didnt give a “memorable performance”. She was entertaining, but not worthy of an Oscar statue. It was not a “tour de force”. Im still hoping for Leo to win Best Actor at the Oscars.

  8. I’m honestly wondering if this year’s Best Supporting Actress Oscar category is shaping up like the Best Actress Oscar race from two years ago between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. Viola Davis was thought to have the Oscar edge with victories at the Critics Choice Awards and SAG. Meryl won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, but people were still saying it was Viola Davis for the Oscar win, yet Meryl came out on top. This year has definitely stacked up just like that, so I am guessing J-Law could very well take home her 2nd Oscar if recent history is any indication.

  9. Stergios, I love Jennifer Lawrence as much as the next person, and I think she’s very talented but on what PLANET is she one of the best actresses of all time…? She hasn’t even given us enough film work off of which to base a statement like that! The award should go to Lupita. Again, I love Lawrence, but she basically gave us the same kind of warmed-over performance she gave in SILVER LININGS. Not ineffective, not unfunny, and not without its abundance of charm, but still…not Oscar-worthy.

  10. You know what? I am sick of the people who say that the Lupita´s performance was better than Jennifer´s only because the performance of Lupita was way more dramatical and intense. That´s not a parameter of comparision. It´s obvious that Lupita´s was addressed to a more touching-hearts performance, beacuse that´s is the gender of the movie DRAMA. In the case of Lawrence, her perfomances will not cause that touching feeling due to the fact that it´s a comedy-oriented performance. Both did a great job in their respective roles and genders. But in Jennifer have more merit because she did a outstanding performance in a comedy role, which always will be more challenging beacuse the actor/actress have to use more acting resources in entonation, gestures, stage presence, etc. that´s why she also won almost everything last year for Silver Linnings Playbook.

  11. I found Jennifer’s performance to be incredibly annoying but everyone likes to kiss her ass. Lupita deserves the Academy Award but this is getting stressful. I give up.

  12. I agree with Shelly, I don’t think this means Jennifer Lawrence will win the Oscar, even though I think she deserves to. I thought Lupita had a very affecting role, but not a particularly affecting performance. We mostly react to what’s happening to Patsey, not to Patsey herself. Jennifer took a character that could have been one-dimensional and made her funny and complex. The scene where she cries in the restaurant was truly affecting. I’m not saying the other performances in the category weren’t good. I just think Jennifer’s was better (and yes, I have seen all of the movies.)
    What really makes me sad is that this has turned into a race thing, and into a hate-fest against Jennifer. Someone left a comment about “white privilege.” Seriously? Maybe people just thought her performance was better. Maybe it’s even true. Just a thought. Whether or not you think Jennifer or anyone else deserves to win their awards, let’s all try to stop hating on people. It’s not their fault when they win or don’t win!

  13. How did Jennifer have the more challenging role? Her character was no more different than SLP. People are only giving excuses for her just to make it seem like her performance was better. Her character was entertaining, but not award worthy. It all depends on if the Academy wants to do that for her. They can go for the obvious, popular top dog or they could give it to the most deserving. They need to shake it up a bit this year, make it not so predictable.

  14. I have mixed feelings on Jennifer winning the Oscar. I thought both she and Lupita had wonderful performances for their vastly different movies. I am actually wondering if Jen actually wants the Oscar given the rude comments about her peaking too early from last year, to the ones this year that are all over the place in tearing her down as if it is her FAULT if she wins. She has no control over the voting results so put the blame on the Oscar voters, not her. Tearing her down at this point is pointless. You want to vent? Aim it somewhere else. Again, both front runners did a great job with the material they were given. I think Lupita will win, but I do think they will not leave AH out so it will either be screenplay or supporting actress, with 12 years taking BP.

  15. Jennifer Lawrence is and will always be one of the greatest actresses of all time. And yes, someone can make this statement despite her incredibly short film work . And that’s because throughout her undeniably short but extremely memorable, awe-inspiring career, she has shown a range that can be compared only with the likes of Katharine Hepburn, Meryl Streep and Cate Blanchett. She tried so many different gernes and excelled in all of them. She’s a terrific dramatic actress, a terrific comedic actress, a terrific action actress, quite simply a terrific actress. She’s a phenomenal talent and in “American Hustle”, she proves it once again. And let’s be honest, Lupita Nyong’o was amazing in “12 years a slave” in a star-making performance, but Jennifer could pull off a performance like that and even a better one playing someone like Patsey. Lupita, on the other hand, couldn’t pull off a performance like Jennifer’s in “American Hustle”, she just couldn’t. Jennifer has proven herself to be incomparable in whatever she’s asked to do. She was robbed the Oscar for her emotionally devastating turns in “Poker House” and “Winter’s bone”. The first time I saw her in a movie was in “Poker House”, I didn’t wait for “The Hunger Games” franchise to meet with her unmatched talent. She is just an exceptional actress, almost in a non-human way, yet her demeanor is so human and down to earth, she really becomes one of us. Plus, she’s sexy as hell, smart as hell, charming as hell, etc. She’s the queen of everything, a superstar and an acting genius at the same time. She’s in a league of her own. Also, I agree with Josh that there’s a difference between “more dramatic” and “better”. And Jennifer gives a BETTER performance, objectively speaking (and not subjectively). Giving another legendary performance in the delicious black comedy “American Hustle”, she reminds us that comedy is so much more difficult than drama. There is a rhythm to comedy, a specific timing required, a sense of knowledge for your audience that seems so difficult to achieve, it has to be played just right. And damn, if you play it “Jennifer Lawrence” right. Masterful in a scene-stealing turn, Jennifer Lawrence enters the movie and walks with it. She steals the show, let alone from the likes of Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper and Jeremy Renner. With limited screen time, she owns every scene she’s in. With an apparent age difference with her co-star Christian Bale, she makes us sure her Rosalyn has some very serious father issues. With lines that could lead to a flat, one-note, caricaturesque performance, she gives an one woman show, injecting raw honesty and genuine sympathy. With everything that could work against her performance, she uses it to put just another layer in an unforgettable tour de force. She manages to create an unpredictable, wild, loud-mouthed character and imbues it with an enormous amount of energy. As Rosalyn Rosenfeld, she’s “the Picasso of passive-aggressive karate”, as Bale’s Irving calls her. She’s manipulative and then needy and then vulnerable and then broken. She’s a human mess and makes it perfectly clear in an unstoppable acting masterclass. You struggle to get over the emotion in her eyes during the restaurant, “hating for change” scene with Jack Huston. It’s an Oscar-worthy performance in every possible sense of the way and I really hope that the Academy will recognize her tremendous work.

  16. I like Jennifer as an actress because of the authenticity she’s brought to her roles so far. Honestly, American Hustle is SLP 2.0 for her; if you’ve seen both, you’ll see how similar both characters are. She won last year which is a sure bet that she won’t this year; had she not won for SLP, Lupita probably wouldn’t be a strong contender. The Academy has hardly ever done a back to back win, especially with someone so young and early off in their career. The BAFTA isn’t an actual precursor for the Oscars, because Chiwetel Ejiofor won for best actor but Matthew McConaughey has one every single American precursor so he seems like a sure bet for Best Actor thanks to the SAG and Critics Choice award, among other awards.

  17. Lupita will win! Jennifer won last year therefore the Academy is likely to award the newcomer with the strongest performance. Compare Jennifer in American Hustle and Lupita in 12 Years a Slave, can you honestly say that J. Laws portrayal of a drunk, cooky housewife will win over the heart wrenching and powerful reality that Lupita conveys throughout the few scenes she was in? C’mon, we know the Academy loves newcomers with historical and powerful performances.

  18. I’m not Jennifer Lawrence herself, Cassie, but I’m a movies lover by birth and I know this: degrading a terrific performance like Jennifer’s just because she won last year or because Lupita Nyong’o has a more dramatic role in “12 years a slave” isn’t the right choice. Jennifer has already made history and with a hell of a performance like the one she delivers in “Hustle”, she proves she should make history again. I’m totally awe-struck by her talent and her phenomenal turn as Rosalyn (it actually reminded me the performances of Penelope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and Marisa Tomei’s in “My cousin Vinny”, the kind of passionate comedic turns in supporting roles, but with much more emotional impact) and I know for sure I’m not the only one. I also think Lupita Nyong’o is heartbreaking in “12 years a slave” and really deserving of the praise she had so far. That said, I just feel that the Academy should give Jennifer her second Oscar for her tricky, extremely daring and risky performance in “American Hustle”.

  19. So who woulda thunk the Best Actress race would be a snoozefest of a locked race no one cares about and BSA would be the one everyone will be debating hotly till Oscar night? lol

  20. I had this discussion today with my friends – “Who will win?” ” Which role is better?” and then one of my friends said that he loved both Jennifer and Lupita, but when he thinks about ” 12 years a slave” first actor that comes to his mind is Fassbender then Ejiofor, but when he thinks about ” American Hustle” first it’s Lawrence and then Bale. I know that maybe it’s not indicator of Who will win, but there’s definitely something to it. For me personally it’s Lawrence ( like Meryl Streep role of Thatcher over Viola Davis role).

  21. Statistically Jennifer Lawrence has the minor edge now. While Lupita has a strong foreteller with SAG, Critics Choice is not as accurate as BAFTA and Globes in this category. Also, only two movies with all four acting nominations has lost all it’s acting bids and you have to go all the way back to 1950 with Sunset Blvd. on that loss. And it seems that females benefit the most when a movie gets all four acting nominations. Out of the 14 times it happened 8 actresses in lead and 8 in supporting ended up taking it while only 2 actors in lead and 2 in supporting have taken it. Needless to say it’s a closer race than we think.

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