‘Birdman’ ensemble is odds-on favorite to win at SAG Awards

SAG Award nominations will be announced on Wednesday, December 10, but our predictors already have an idea of who will win. “Birdman” is the frontrunner for Best Film Ensemble according to our racetrack odds.

Oscar experts predict ‘Birdman’ will get 10 nominations

Do you agree with our SAG predictions? Click here to bet on five SAG categories for film, or use our drag-and-drop menu at the bottom of this post to get started. Your predictions generate our odds, which are closely watched by industry insiders to find out who has the inside track.

Though “Boyhood” is our frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar, “Birdman” gets the edge at the SAG Awards. That may be because SAG tends to favor large casts full of A-list stars, and “Boyhood” is an intimate drama with only a few major roles. That’s not necessarily a deal-breaker for the acclaimed coming-of-age film – “Sideways” and “Little Miss Sunshine” won for smaller, tight-knit ensembles – but it is a disadvantage.

‘Birdman’ wins 2 top Gotham Awards — Will it soar at Oscars next?

Meanwhile, “Birdman” features big-name celebs Michael Keaton, Edward Norton, and Emma Stone – all expected to earn individual acting bids – in addition to Zach Galifianakis, Naomi Watts, Andrea Riseborough, and Amy Ryan.

“Birdman” leads with 2/1 odds, followed by “Boyhood” (11/2 odds), the tragic Olympic drama “Foxcatcher” (6/1 odds), the all-star musical “Into the Woods” (9/1 odds), and “The Imitation Game” (12/1 odds). Right on the bubble for nominations are “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “Selma” (14/1 odds for both).

But winning SAG doesn’t necessarily mean an easy road to Oscar. Because SAG honors ensemble acting and not the films as a whole, it doesn’t usually parallel with the Best Picture Oscar. Indeed, fewer than 50% of SAG winners for Best Film Ensemble have gone on to win the top Oscar.

Time’s running out to make your SAG predictions. Nominations are announced on Wednesday, December 10, so use our drag-and-drop menu below to get started, or click here to visit our predictions center, where you can enter your picks for SAG, Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and Oscars.

2 thoughts on “‘Birdman’ ensemble is odds-on favorite to win at SAG Awards

  1. Since Birdman also has Keaton as a frontrunner contender and Norton and Stone as 2nd-3rd place dark horses, the SAG Ensemble won’t just be giving the film a statue (like American Hustle last year), but will show that the film firmly has the actors throughout the industry supporting it. Birdman has stronger Picture/Director chances than most people realize since the actors make the largest Academy branch. If Gravity had more actors backing it, it may have snatched Best Picture away from 12 Years a Slave.

    If you have the actors, you’re Picture/Director chances aren’t necessarily caput. Boyhood should watch out.

    But, as always, let’s wait for the guilds to show up.


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