The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the best barometers for predicting the Oscars.
Over their 18-year, these awards bestowed by the Broadcast Film Critics Assn.have proven to be the most accurate precursor prizes to the Oscars predicting 12 Best Picture, 12 Best Actor, 10 Best Actress, 11 Supporting Actress and nine Supporting Actor winners.
However, last year they only went three for six in foreseeing the winners of these major awards at the Oscars.
But, with many of the categories at these kudos having six slots, they do well at foreseeing the eventual five Oscar nominees. This year, they previewed 28 of the 34 Oscar nominees in the top six categories; last year, they went 29 out of 34.
Below, an analysis of this year’s BFCA winners and nominations for these top six awards, including handicapping the likelihood of these prizes previewing the eventual winners slate at the Oscars. (Oscar nominees are in bold, with the BFCA winner in gold as well.)
The BFCA lineup included eight onf the nine Oscar nominees for Best Picture. The BFCA snubbed “Philomena.”
After being snubbed by the three major print critics awards — the Gotham and LA groups and the national society — “12 Years a Slave,” which had won over many regional critics, picked up this prize.
Last year, the BFCA foresaw eight of the the nine Best Picture nominees: “Argo,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Django Unchained,” “Les Miserables,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” Silver Linings Playbook,” “Zero Dark Thirty.” They opted for “The Master” and “Moonrise Kingdom” over eventual Oscar contender “Amour.” Both the BFCA and the Oscars went with “Argo.”
Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”
Paul Greengrass, “Captain Phillips”
Spike Jonze, “Her”
Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Cuaron has claimed the lion’s share of critics awards and is the clear Oscar frontrunner. Three of the other BFCA nominees make the cut for the Oscar, with Alexander Payne (“Nebraska”) reaping that fifth bid over DGA nominee Greengrass and Jonze.
Last year, the BFCA presaged three of the Best Director Oscar nominees: Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”); David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”); Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”). Snubbed Ben Affleck won the Critics’ Choice award while Lee took home the Oscar.
Christian Bale, “American Hustle“
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska“
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave“
Tom Hanks, “Captain Phillips“
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club“
Robert Redford, “All is Lost“
While the BFCA included eventual Oscar nominee Bale in this race, they snubbed Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) who had to settle for the Comedy Actor award.
McConaughey continues to build momentum, and wins over voters every time he delivers an acceptance speech.
Last year, the BFCA foresaw all five of the the eventual Best Actor nominees — Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”), Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master”) and Denzel Washington (“Flight”) — with Day-Lewis winning both awards.
Oscar nominee Amy Adams (“American Hustle”) had to be content with a Comedy Actress award at the BFCA.
Blanchett continues to pick up every precursor prize and is as close to a lock as you can get with the Oscars.
Last year, the BFCA predicted the Best Actress lineup at the Oscars — Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild) and Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”) — with Chastain winning over the critics but losing the Oscar to Lawrence.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips“
Daniel Bruhl, “Rush“
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle“
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave“
James Gandolfini, “Enough Said“
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club“
As with Blanchett, Leto is sweeping the precursor awards and is the clear frontrunner to take to the stage at the Dolby Theater on Oscar night.
Last year the BFCA foresaw four of the five Oscar nominees — Alan Arkin (“Argo”), Robert De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”) and Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”) — but nominated Javier Bardem (“Skyfall#”) and Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike”) over eventual Oscar winner Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained“). The BFCA winner was Hoffman.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson, “Her“
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle“
Lupita Nyongo, “12 Years a Slave“
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County“
June Squibb, “Nebraska“
Oprah Winfrey, “The Butler“
Golden Globe nominee Sally Hawkins (“Blue Jasmine”) rounded out the Oscar lineup over SAG contender Winfrey; Johansson was always a longshot at the Oscars for her voice performance in “Her.”
Nyongo deliverered yet another winning acceptance speech. She is poised to be a strong contender at the Oscars, with last year’s Best Actress champ Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”) her closest rival.
Last year, the BFCA got four of the eventual Oscar nominees — Amy Adams (“The Master”); Sally Field (“Lincoln”); Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”); Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”) — but went with Judi Dench (“Skyfall”) and Ann Dowd (“Compliance”) over eventual Oscar nominee Jacki Weaver (“Silver Linings Playbook”). Hathway won over both the BFCA and the academy.
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